Good morning and welcome back. In today’s newsletter:

• Christine Lagarde to leave ECB before the end of her 8-year term

• Eni plots return to oil and gas trading as it eyes rivals’ profits

• Gilt investors warn about ‘ruse’ to fund higher UK defence spending

• Who can fix Britain’s maternity care crisis?

We begin with an exclusive story on the succession at the European Central Bank.

What to know: Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB before her eight-year term as president expires in October 2027, according to a person familiar with her thinking.

Europe’s top central banker, who joined the Frankfurt-based ECB in November 2019 from the IMF, wants to exit before the French presidential election in April next year.

According to the person with knowledge of her thinking, Lagarde wants to give French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz time to find a new head for one of the EU’s most important institutions. It is not clear when Lagarde will leave.

Why it matters: People briefed on discussions in Paris have told the FT that Macron has for months wanted to have a say in choosing Lagarde’s successor. The French presidential election in April next year will be crucial for the Eurozone’s second-largest economy and the wider EU. Read the full story.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: France and the UK release January inflation data while Germany releases fourth-quarter labour market statistics. The US publishes minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

• IEA: The head of the International Energy Agency warns on widening divisions over policy, as energy ministers meet in Paris today and tomorrow.

• Greenland: Denmark’s King Frederik X begins a three-day official visit to the Arctic territory.

• Trilateral meeting: Delegations from Ukraine, Russia and the US continue with talks in Geneva to end the war.

• Results: BAE Systems, DoorDash, Glencore, Moody’s and Orange report earnings.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: Italian energy major Eni is weighing a return to oil and gas trading, seeking the outsized returns enjoyed by rivals BP, Shell and TotalEnergies as geopolitical tensions fuel price volatility. Read more remarks from chief executive Claudio Descalzi.

2. Investors have warned that loosening the UK’s borrowing limits to fund more spending on defence would risk a rise in borrowing costs, as the government struggles to fill a looming black hole in its armed forces budget.

3. Exclusive: David Silver, one of Britain’s top AI researchers, is raising $1bn for a new company aiming to build “superhuman intelligence” in a deal led by Sequoia Capital that would be the largest seed round ever in Europe. Read more on the London-based AI start-up Ineffable Intelligence.

4. European airlines have called on Brussels to scrap an aviation deal with Qatar after the senior EU official who had overseen the “open skies” pact negotiations was dismissed over corruption allegations. Read the full story.

5. China’s push to foster medical technology champions to rival US groups such as Elon Musk’s Neuralink is beginning to show results, with one Shanghai brain implant start-up moving to human trials. Read more on how Beijing’s political support is helping groups such as NeuroXess.

The Big Read

In the UK, giving birth is getting riskier. Midwives are stretched to exhaustion while hospitals juggle complex cases with inconsistent guidance. Yet successive governments have failed to produce measurable improvements. Who can fix Britain’s maternity care crisis?

We’re also reading . . . 

• US brain drain: Policy decisions grounded in Maga talking points are helping to fuel a PhD exodus from government, eroding the country’s scientific edge, writes Anjana Ahuja.

• Downsize me: US restaurants are cutting portions as customers struggling with the rising cost of living seek cheaper options.

• Population decline: Arguments about the dangers of falling fertility deserve much closer scrutiny, writes Martin Wolf.

How should you navigate global economic risks this year? Join us tomorrow for a live Ask an Expert Q&A with Chris Giles, the FT’s economics commentator. Post your question here.

Chart of the day

Reform UK has signalled that if it came to office it would tackle one of the government’s biggest liabilities: public sector pensions. Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, told the FT that the unfunded schemes were a “major problem”. Others disagree.

Take a break from the news . . . 

Should you have a television in your bedroom? Before Louis Wise reorganised his apartment he was of the view that the bedroom was for grown-up activities such as folding clothes or sex — not any more. What do you think?