Welcome to Economic Insights, a twice-weekly newsletter focusing on major projects and the Canadian economy at large.

Stories we are following:

• The federal government’s prioritization of projects with INDIGENOUS CO-OWNERS is reshaping the major projects agenda, as First Nations increasingly turn to equity deals in lieu of other arrangements.
• NORTHCLIFF RESOURCES is pushing ahead with pre-construction at its SISSON PROJECT in New Brunswick. The long-delayed mine needs strong stronger market prices to attract investors while facing competition from cheaper, Chinese-supplied tungsten and molybdenum.

Equity evolution

There is a growing number of Indigenous groups seeking equity stakes in major projects, as demand for financing programs can attest.

• Rights-holders, not stakeholders: Chief SHERI TAYLOR of Ginoogaming First Nation tells iPolitics that her community and six others are pursuing a 50/50 equity partnership with HYDRO ONE for the proposed Greenstone transmission line to the Ring of Fire region.

• “We want a piece of the project, an opportunity to have oversight, to have a say,” she said.

• Capital catalyst: The FIRST NATIONS FINANCE AUTHORITY reports an uptick in number of communities seeking capital. CEO ERNIE DANIELS noted that while their first bond in 2014 was for $90 million, they issued $1.2 billion in financing this past year for equity stakes in LNG, seafood, and more.

• Ottawa’s Backing: Prime Minister MARK CARNEY has made meaningful Indigenous ownership a centerpiece of recent major project announcements. To support this, the federal government recently doubled the CANADA INDIGENOUS LOAN GUARANTEE (CILG) envelope to $10 billion, with the new funds carrying a higher risk profile after consultations with Indigenous groups, says newly minted CEO KRISTAN STRAUB.

Northcliff Resources Ltd. holds an 88.5% controlling interest in and is the operator of the advanced-stage Sisson Tungsten-Molybdenum Project in New Brunswick.

Tungsten turn

NORTHCLIFF RESOURCES is checking off boxes at its SISSON PROJECT in New Brunswick, a proposed tungsten and molybdenum mine the federal government identified as a strategic priority for North American defense and manufacturing.

• Pre-construction push: The company announced late last week it is updating its 2013 feasibility study through site investigation and metallurgical test work. It’s also doing some engineering for the tailings storage area.
• Funding in hand: A US$15 million award from the U.S. Defense Production Act and C$8.2 million from Canada is funding this pre-construction program, which is expected to wrap up by mid-2026.
• Nation Building: The company says it is working with the federal MAJOR PROJECTS OFFICE to explore opportunities for financial and regulatory assistance. It’s currently looking at how import-export credit agencies could help.
•  Speaking of equity: New Brunswick’s minister of Indigenous Affairs, KEITH CHIASSON, recently told reporters NORTHCLIFF is open to revisiting the agreement made with WOLASTOQEY NATION in 2015 to include an equity deal in the project, as opposed to the current arrangement focusing on royalties.
• No mention: The company had nothing new to share on that front in the latest update, saying instead that it is continuing outreach with communities, and finalizing “an engagement plan for the potential operation at SISSON.”

BY THE NUMBERS

50 per cent: The equity stake Indigenous leaders are targeting to ensure a seat at the boardroom table.

30,000 Tonnes: The projected daily ore extraction rate at SISSON, targeting a 27-year mine life.

300+: The number of meetings held by the Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation with Indigenous leadership in its first 14 months of operation.

MAJOR PROJECTS WATCH

— New submission: New Brunswick’s deep water cargo PORT OF BELLEDUNE has made a $750-million pitch to the MAJOR PROJECTS OFFICE, proposing upgrades that would allow it to welcome defence ships for turnarounds, and play a bigger role in critical mineral exports. The port is hoping to become a specialized industrial park for green energy.

— New records? TORYS LLP notes that 2025 was a record year for mergers & acquisitions in Canadian infrastructure and energy. The firm says that trend could well continue into 2026.

— Nickel on the rebound: Nickel prices are recovering, with Indonesia implementing new quotas and supply constraints after years of dumping. Great news for CANADA NICKEL, who is working with the MAJOR PROJECTS OFFICE to advance a massive Timmins-area mine.

— New deal: The PORT OF QUEBEC has signed a new agreement with the WENDAT NATION, replacing a deal from 2018. The new arrangement includes a joint committee, an impact assessment process, and procurement opportunities. The renegotiation comes as the port hopes to land major infrastructure investments.

HEADLINES

THE KICKER

Half a dozen reporters stood in the parking lot of the Confederation Building for about an hour Tuesday for an electric vehicle announcement.

This newsletter writer couldn’t feel her toes by the end of it — but was happy to get an up close view of Minister Hodgson’s cute hat.