Oil Drops as Easing Middle Eastern Tensions Reduce Supply Risks


Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Oil declined as tensions in the Middle East eased, reducing the chance of interruptions to supply in the near term.

Brent fell toward $67 a barrel, after losing almost 4% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $63. Iran and the US engaged in talks on Friday in Oman in an effort to defuse tensions over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, with Tehran saying the session was “a step forward.”

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With Washington having amassed military forces in the region, President Donald Trump said there would be another meeting early this week. The US leader is also due to see Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Feb. 11, while priming a tariffs against countries doing business with Tehran.

Crude has pushed higher since the start of 2026 despite widespread concerns about a looming glut, with gains supported by geopolitical tensions as well as halts to some flows, including from Kazakhstan. Still, prices fell last week on the signs of progress between Iran and the US.

Traders were also looking at flows to India. Trump has said the South Asian nation agreed to halt crude imports from Russia as part of a trade deal. However, New Delhi has yet to directly confirm the commitment, with the government emphasizing that energy security remains its top concern.

“If India stops Russian oil purchases following the US-India trade deal, we would need to see Russian oil discounts widening in an effort to find alternative buyers,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. Failing to find other takers would ultimately mean a tighter balance, he said.

There’ll be plenty of clues on the market outlook this week, with the official US forecaster, OPEC, and the International Energy Agency due to issue updated analyses. In addition, International Energy Week in London will feature speakers including Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of Vitol Group.

Elsewhere, Cuba was in focus, as the US ramped up pressure on Havana after its intervention in Venezuela in January. With fuel shipments effectively cut off, the communist government warned international airlines they can no longer refuel at the main airport in the capital for the next month.

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