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An NFL season that has rarely played to expectations will end Sunday with Super Bowl 60 and a matchup few would have seen coming during training camp six months ago.
The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
With no dominant teams emerging during the regular season, and preseason contenders such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions not even making the playoffs, the postseason was wide open for the teams that could put together one strong month. Those happened to be Seattle and New England, even though their rosters had the least prior postseason experience among the 14 teams to make the playoffs.
The Patriots won the AFC by surviving bad weather and their own uncharacteristic offensive woes. The Seahawks won the NFC while writing a ready-made redemption story for quarterback Sam Darnold, who is only the third quarterback to start a Super Bowl while on his fifth team or later.
Finally, after all of the talk, we’ll see who wins it. Before kickoff, our experts weigh in on who they see taking the Lombardi Trophy.
Which quarterback do you trust more?
Tim Rohan: It’s close but I’ll give Sam Darnold the edge. The tiebreaker? He gets to throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the NFL’s offensive player of the year, who had 10 catches for 153 yards and a touchdown in the NFC championship game. Darnold has struggled against pressure throughout his career, but Smith-Njigba is an elite route-runner who always seems to be open, which gives Darnold an escape hatch.
Drake Maye has proved he deserves to be mentioned among the league’s best, especially after he nearly won the MVP award. But his weapons aren’t nearly as dynamic as Darnold’s.
David K. Li: Sam Darnold. Yes, this will be the most pressure-packed game of his eight-year career. But do you know what real pressure here is? Real stress and tension is playing your way out of the dreaded “first-round bust” designation.
Darnold’s already shown maximum resolve by scrambling his way off the ash heap of underachievement history, where the likes of Zach Wilson, Josh Rosen and Johnny Manziel all reside.
Rohan Nadkarni: Well, only one quarterback was an MVP finalist, so I have to go with Drake Maye. While he hasn’t been sharp during the postseason, Maye has still made plays in big moments during the Pats’ run to the Super Bowl.
As we saw in New England’s win over the Broncos, one advantage of Maye’s game is his ability to make plays with his feet. Going against an aggressive defense, Maye will have to make off-schedule plays and generate random offense to give the Patriots a chance.
Andrew Greif: I trust Darnold to be steadier, but I trust Drake Maye as more likely to make a “wow” play — especially when you consider his ability to improvise as a runner. As my colleagues have pointed out, Maye’s pass-catching options aren’t as numerous as Darnold’s, but I do think it’s valuable that Maye comes into this game having already been hardened against an extremely tough defense in this postseason during New England’s win against Houston. The stiff test he’ll see against Seattle won’t be a drastic increase in his learning curve.
Who will be an X factor besides the quarterback?
K. Li: For two teams that dominated football this year, winning 14 games apiece, turnovers were a small or non-factor in their success.
New England was +3 in turnovers, while Seattle was -3, ranking them both in the middle of the turnover differential pack.
So could Patriots safety Jaylinn Hawkins, who went to school at nearby Cal, possibly pick off his old Pac-12 rival Sam Darnold? Or perhaps linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson could force a fumble that would boost his underdog Patriots?
Nadkarni: Seahawks’ hybrid safety/linebacker/nickelback Nick Emmanwori is perhaps the key to this whole game. Though only a rookie, Emmanwori can play the run and pass equally great, which has been the key to the Seahawks’ incredible defense. After tweaking his ankle during practice in the lead-up to the Super Bowl, Emmanwori has since been taken off the injury report, but any hitch in his game would be a boon for the Patriots.
Otherwise, Emmanwori is the kind of player who can single-handedly wreck offensive drives. New England’s No. 1 objective may be trying to neutralize what Seattle does when its defense is in a nickel package on early downs.
Greif: Patriots defensive tackle Milton Williams. His two sacks of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in last year’s Super Bowl earned Williams a championship and a big contract in free agency from the Patriots, who hoped he could reprise that protection-busting role again for them in big games. He’s played very well in the postseason while being challenged by coach Mike Vrabel.
Pressuring Darnold has caused him to play erratically throughout his career, though less so this season. If the Patriots want to disrupt Seattle, which doesn’t have much of a run game, it needs to happen in the pass rush.
Rohan: Will Campbell, the Patriots’ rookie left tackle. He was carted off the field in late November with a knee injury. Campbell missed four games and returned in time for the playoffs, but he told reporters he didn’t feel like himself again until the AFC championship game in late January. Luckily for the Patriots, Campbell had another two weeks to recover before the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks have a ferocious pass rush. If Campbell can’t hold up against pressure and give Drake Maye time to make plays, this game could get out of hand quickly.
Defensive storyline to watch
Greif: It has to begin and end with whether Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba can be contained, because as he goes, so goes the Seahawks offense. He accounts for 43.3% of his team’s entire receiving yardage. It mights sound obvious, but this matchup is the one that NFL defenses couldn’t solve all season, and it’s the first problem New England’s defense must confront Sunday.
Rohan: Can linebacker Ernest Jones IV and the Seattle defense keep Drake Maye in the pocket? Maye has shown he’s a threat to scramble. In the AFC championship game, he ran 10 times for 65 yards and sealed the game on a QB keeper in the snow.
Jones is an active, athletic linebacker in the center of the Seattle defense who’s often asked to drop back into coverage. He has five interceptions this season, a high number for a nondefensive back. If Seattle can pressure Maye and keep him from scrambling, it could be a long night for the young Patriots quarterback.
K. Li: What can Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and his teammates in the New England secondary do to contain Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Not only does New England need to limit damage inflicted by the NFL’s leader in receiving yards, but it has to be done efficiently.
The moment JSN starts drawing additional eyeballs from New England defenders, that’s when the resurgent Cooper Kupp shows flashes of his old L.A. self and Kenneth Walker III can get loose.
Nadkarni: The Patriots’ defense has been remarkable during the playoffs, and a big factor in this game will be how New England defends the run. The Seahawks aren’t a great rushing team, and the Patriots have been dominant in the trenches, particularly when Milton Williams is on the field.
Can New England force Sam Darnold to convert on third and long over and over again? The Patriots’ best chance of winning is likely forcing Darnold into a shootout with Maye or to make Darnold play from behind. One way to do that would be to completely snuff out the Seattle run game.
Super Bowl prediction
K. Li: Seahawks 24, Patriots 14.
This isn’t college football, so no one gets style points for a “quality win.” But if there were such an NFL measure, it’d be hard to undercut Seattle’s 14-win, division championship season, coming out of the murderous NFC West.
The Patriots, meanwhile, filled up on the empty carbs that were Tennessee, Cleveland, the New York Giants and division rivals Miami and the New York Jets.
Rohan: Seahawks 24, Patriots 17.
Seattle has the better all-around team. The Seahawks’ defense can pressure you, can cover you, and they have the depth to just keep coming. On offense, Seattle has multiple options and can always throw to Jaxson Smith-Njigba if all else fails.
New England keeps it close because of two people: coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye. Vrabel won the NFL’s coach of the year award, and Maye was nearly named the MVP. Vrabel, Maye and the Patriots are coming. But this is the Seahawks’ year.
Nadkarni: Seahawks 28, Patriots 24.
The Seahawks have been the best team in the NFL all season and are undoubtedly more talented overall. Super Bowls have a tendency to be weird, though, and I have a feeling Mike Vrabel is going to have a trick or two up his sleeve for the Patriots. New England also has the upper hand at quarterback, which would make this game extra fascinating if it’s close late in the fourth quarter.
Seattle has just been so great, though, and I think the team that’s been more battle tested over the course of the season will pull this one out.
Greif: Patriots 31, Seahawks 28
The Patriots tend to play in bizarre Super Bowls. Think “Helmet Catch.” Think 28-3. Think, of course, Malcolm Butler. So, although my head says Seahawks, I have a nagging sense the Patriots feel less pressure. Vrabel is masterful at clock management and strategy, and I think it helps New England muster an upset.
