What Boeing & Airbus Aircraft Could It Buy?

It is reported that Saudia will order at least 150 aircraft, covering both its passenger and freight fleets. While the SkyTeam member has yet to disclose its exact plans, it is likely to include many frames to replace existing aircraft, as well as to enable strong future growth from its Jeddah hub. After all, Riyadh Air will, in time, focus on the country’s capital.

This article is based on a discussion with Behramjee Ghadially, whose specialty is airline network planning and fleet planning. His background includes roles with various Middle Eastern carriers. Of course, as nothing is official yet, it reflects Ghadially’s forecast. He has considered what he thinks would be sensible for the operator, and not the whole Saudia Group.

What Boeing Aircraft Could Saudia Order?

Boeing 777-9 prototype 777X aircraft landing at Boeing Everett factory

The latest ch-aviation data shows that Saudia Cargo has four 777Fs and four 747-400Fs (leased from Air Atlanta Europe). Ghadially expects ten 777-8Fs to replace these eight freighters and allow for future growth.

In a passenger sense, Saudia has 37 777-300ERs, which are the airline’s core widebody subfleet. They only average 11.4 years, but ordering aircraft is, of course, usually for many years in the future. Ghadially forecasts 50 777-9s to replace them, with 13 additional aircraft for future growth. He thinks it is unlikely that Saudia will order the Airbus A350-1000 instead. This is partly because of its lower takeoff performance, and thus the need for a lower payload, than the 777-9 during the blisteringly hot summer days.

He believes the 777-9s would be in three different layouts. They’d be tailored to specific route groups, balancing the extent and nature of demand. One would be in a high-density configuration with lower seat-mile costs for lower-yielding destinations in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Another would be in a two-class layout, while the third would have three classes, including first class. Twelve of its 777-300ERs have first class.

Saudia now has 21 787s, consisting of 13 787-9s and eight 787-10s. Ghadially reckons 30 additional Dreamliners will be ordered: 20 787-10s (ten from firming up an option from the original order) and ten 787-9s. They’d partly replace the carrier’s 31 A330-300s (excluding three aircraft leased from Wamos Air), with plenty of additional, fuel-efficient aircraft for future network growth.

What Airbus Aircraft Could It Order?

Currently, Saudia has 95 Airbus aircraft: 37 A320ceos (some only have 110 seats), 31 A330-300s (see earlier; they may be replaced by the 787), 15 A321ceos, and 12 A321neos. It has 15 XLRs on order, which will have just 144 seats in a high-premium layout. Ghadially anticipates an order for 60 Airbus aircraft, entirely consisting of the A321neo: 40 additional bog-standard neos and 20 extra XLRs.

“Saudia needs more than 15 XLR units to effectively build a second and third hub wave bank at Jeddah. The vast majority of the airline’s European and African routes cannot support a double-daily 787 service, but could sustain a double-daily XLR operation as its transit traffic grows. It’d also enable more routes within an eight-hour distance to be opened up at a lower cost and risk than a widebody.”

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How Could The Whole Order Look Like?

Saudia’s current passenger fleet consists of an all-Airbus narrowbody subfleet, while its widebodies are from both Airbus and Boeing. If Saudia’s apparent plan for (at least) 150 aircraft is correct, and Ghadially’s forecast is accurate, its potential order would reduce fleet complexity considerably.

The airline would keep with Airbus equipment for its single-aisle operations, with A321neos and XLRs replacing its A320ceos and A321ceos. This would drive down unit costs while increasing capacity per flight. Its twin-aisle subfleet would shift from a mixture of A330, 777s, and 787s to Boeing entirely, exclusively focusing on 787s and 777s.