TORONTO — Greater Toronto Area home sales and price weakness is likely to persist for at least the first half of the year, the region’s real estate board said Wednesday.

The outlook came as the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said home sales for January fell 19.3 per cent from a year earlier to 3,082 sales. The average selling price dropped 6.5 per cent to $973,289, falling below the $1 million mark for the first time since January 2021.

New listings were down from a year earlier, but active listings were up 8.1 per cent to 17,975. Average listing days on the market rose 21.6 per cent to 45 days.

The elevated supply will likely lead to lower average selling prices in the first half of 2026, though prices could stabilize in the latter half of the year if consumer confidence improves, said TRREB.

“The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026,” said board president Daniel Steinfeld in a news release.

“Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years.”

An Ipsos survey released by TRREB found Greater Toronto Area homebuying intentions for 2026 fell five percentage points compared with last year to 22 per cent.

The board said that with interest rates not expected to fall further, affordability gains will largely come from home price declines.

The average detached home price in the GTA was down 7.4 per cent in January to $1,277,915. The average condominium price was down 9.8 per cent to $604,759.

TRREB said that for 2026, it forecasts an average price range of between $1 million and $1.03 million.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 4, 2026.

Ian Bickis, The Canadian Press