Over the years, the Model S got more power and more advanced driver assists—and eventually, a cosmetic facelift. But as rivals responded with vehicles like the Porsche Taycan and Lucid Air, the Model S stagnated rather than being replaced.

Similar neglect was shown to the Model X, the brand’s SUV-cum-minivan. The lengthy and troubled gestation for the Model X was a forerunner of the problems Tesla has faced developing each successive product; in this particular case, the “falcon wing” doors, created as an alternative to the minivan’s traditional sliding door, proved particularly problematic to get right. Indeed, I still remember being smacked in the head by one at my first introduction to the ungainly people-mover. And yet, compared to the other SUVs on sale in 2016, the Model X still stood out.

A decade later, it’s fair to say the Model X still stands out, but like a sore thumb. Its looks never became more gainly, and there is now vast competition for large, luxurious electric SUVs, whether that’s from Chinese startups like BYD and Xiaomi, American startups like Rivian and Lucid, or the traditional automakers that now have a handle on electrification.

That has been reflected in the sales. Right-hand drive cars for markets including the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan ended production in 2023. And each quarter, production and sales of the Model S and X slipped more and more. Even lumped together with the poorly selling Cybertruck—which is only offered in the US—these deliveries fell by more than half in Q4 2025, and by 40 percent for the year.

Is there much reason to expect that the development of the Optimus robot will be any smoother than the “development hell” that beset the Model X, 3, Y, and Cybertruck? On last night’s call, Musk admitted—contrary to previous claims—that the robots are not doing any useful work at the Tesla factory, and the idea that the company will build 10,000 robots this year seems in conflict with Optimus still being “very much at the early stages” and “still in the R&D phase,” to use Musk’s own words.