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US President Donald Trump has taken to social media to threaten sanctions on the Canadian aerospace industry. According to the BBC, Trump posted online that he would be “decertifying (…) all aircraft made in Canada” and imposing a 50% tariff on planes made in the country. The threats come as Trump accuses his country’s northern neighbors of “wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly” not certifying US-built Gulfstream aircraft.
While Trump may have spoken too soon, with the White House reportedly later clarifying that the decertification would not apply to existing jets from Canada that are already in operation, such a move could potentially have significant ramifications for airlines and passengers within the US. After all, jets made by Canadian manufacturer Bombardier in particular form the backbone of regional operations at all of the country’s ‘big three’ airlines.
Canadian Jets Play A Key Role In American Eagle’s Operations
With this in mind, it is worth examining the extent to which such carriers rely on these regional aircraft, and considering the wider impacts if a full-scale decertification order were to be pushed through. Starting with 
American Airlines, data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, shows that the carrier has scheduled a grand total of 81,499 regional flights under the American Eagle brand this February, to be operated by various feeder partners.
These flights are not exclusively operated by Canadian jets, with Brazilian-built Embraer ERJ145, E170, and E170 aircraft flown by Envoy Air, Piedmont Airlines, Republic Airways, and SkyWest Airlines accounting for 53,145 flights. Still, the 28,345 flights operated by Piedmont and PSA Airlines’ Bombardier CRJ700 and 900 jets offer almost two million seats, so decertification would have a big impact. In a statement, Bombardier said:
“We have taken note of the post from the President of the United States [on] social media and are in contact with the Canadian government.”
Delta Connection Relies Heavily On The CRJ
Unlike its oneworld rival, Atlanta-based SkyTeam member 
Delta Air Lines actually uses Canadian-built regional jets from the Bombardier CRJ family to operate the majority of its services under the Delta Connection feeder brand. Indeed, Cirium’s data shows that, of the carrier’s 46,822 regional flights scheduled this February, only 19,946 are set to be operated by Embraer E170 and E175 jets from Republic Airways and SkyWest.
As such, this leaves a grand total of 26,876 Bombardier-operated Delta Connection regional flights on the carrier’s February schedule, once again collectively offering in the region of two million seats. This capacity is split between Endeavor Air (CRJ700 and 900) and SkyWest Airlines (CRJ 550, 700, and 900).
While operators such as American and Delta would be the biggest losers from a decertification of Canadian aircraft in the US, there is also the angle of Canadian carriers flying these jets on cross-border flights to consider, as well as whether tariffs could increase fares. For instance, this February, Air Canada has scheduled more than 2,500 flights to and from the US with homegrown aircraft, offering a total of almost 200,000 seats in the process.
Air Canada Reduces Service On 3 US Routes From Vancouver As Trump Backlash Continues
The cuts came in addition to the recent changes Air Canada made to its Florida-bound network.
Decertifying Canadian Jets Would Also Have A Big Impact On United Express
Of the three main American legacy carriers, Chicago-based Star Alliance founding member 
United Airlines stands to be impacted the least by a potential decertification of Canadian-built regional aircraft in the US. Indeed, this February, only a little over a million seats on United Express flights are set to be offered on Bombardier-operated sectors, with 19,648 of these services penciled in compared to 33,334 with Brazilian Embraer jets.
Next month, Bombardier CRJ550 and 700 jets can be found on United Express flights operated by GoJet Airlines and SkyWest, while Embraer ERJ and E-Jet series aircraft will serve United Express flights operated by CommuteAir, Mesa Airlines, Republic Airways, and SkyWest. It will be interesting to see what comes of Trump’s decertification threats, which could potentially harm his own citizens if flights are canceled or tariffs lead to fare hikes.
