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Could 
Boeing dominate in 2026? That depends in part on what dominate means. It could dominate the news with major successes (like the certification of new aircraft), but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will become the largest planemaker. Some of these potential breakthroughs are still recovering from the 2018 and 2019 MAX crashes. After all, Boeing has not had a ‘normal’ year in commercial aircraft deliveries since 2018.
While many aviation enthusiasts may be keen to hear about Boeing building the so-called 797 and a 737 replacement, these are not the priorities for the company for now. Instead, AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly said last January that the biggest priority for Boeing is to get its MAX 7, MAX 10, and Boeing 777X aircraft certified. Here are some things to note about what to expect from Boeing in 2026.
Possible Certification For The MAX 7 & MAX 10
Two more aircraft are expected to be certified
The MAX crashes of 2018 and 2019, attributed to Boeing deliberately withholding key information about its MCAS software from the FAA, as well as airlines, shattered the FAA’s trust in the company. At the time, Boeing’s MAX 8 and MAX 9 had their type certificates, while the certificates for the MAX 7 and MAX 10 were expected soon. As of the start of 2026, the FAA has still refused to grant the type certificates for these aircraft.
Until recently, Boeing had expected to receive the type certificates for the MAX 7 and MAX 10 in 2025, but this has been delayed to 2026. Time will tell if Boeing will, in fact, get these much-needed certificates, or if it will be delayed again. Going into 2026, the assumption is that it will finally get the go-ahead. The FAA certificate for the MAX 7 is currently expected sometime mid-year, while the one for the MAX 10 is expected later on in the year.
Starting in 2026, it seems the 777X will be delayed yet again until 2027. This is posing a big issue, not only for Boeing, which is unable to start delivery of the 777-300ER’s successor, the 777-9, but also for airlines that are forced to hold onto their aging aircraft for longer. 2026 is also the final full-production year that Boeing can sell its older 767-300F and 777F freighters before new regulations come into force in 2028 that will effectively prohibit their sale. As such, Boeing could face a 777 delivery gap.
Increased Boeing Deliveries
Over 600 deliveries are forecast
According to Reuters, Airbus managed to deliver a total of 793 airplanes in 2025, citing industry sources. This allowed it to reach its lowered target of “around 790” aircraft, down from an earlier target of around 820. Numbers for Boeing have still not been released, but by the end of November 2025, Boeing had delivered a total of 537 aircraft. Its full-year deliveries for the year will likely amount to around 575 to 600, although Aviation Week reported Boeing had delivered more than 600 in 2025.
This is a big improvement over 2024’s 348 deliveries, but still much lower than its pre-crisis level of 806 commercial aircraft. Boeing is hoping to continue to ramp up Boeing 737 and 787 deliveries in 2026. The FAA has authorized Boeing to increase its deliveries of the 737 from 38 a month to 42. More ramp-ups are planned with Boeing hoping to increase it to 47 a month in 2026 and eventually 52 to 57 a month in later years.
Boeing is also working to increase deliveries of its popular 787, and is building a new production line for it. At the same time, Airbus is planning to ramp up production further. Having increased its deliveries from 766 in 2024 to 793, some are forecasting the giant will deliver as many as 900. While Boeing may continue to improve its deliveries in 2026, it seems unlikely it will overtake Airbus on a one-for-one basis. It’s worth noting Boeing’s deliveries include a larger share of widebody aircraft.
How Aircraft Delivery Delays May Affect Boeing’s Cash Flow
China’s delivery delays look set to hurt Boeing’s cash flow, and this could get much worse if more countries start delaying.
Return To Positive Cash Flow
Forecasted $2-3 billion free cash flow
One major development for Boeing will be a return to positive cash flow. Boeing has not had a normal year’s profit since 2018, and being unable to sell its MAX 7, MAX 10, and 777X aircraft, together with suppressed deliveries of its other aircraft, has impacted its cash flow. This has forced Boeing to raise cash and has meant the company is in a weak position to embark on expensive projects that won’t return investment for many years ( like the so-called Boeing 797 mid-sized airplane).
Jesus Malave, the Boeing Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President-Finance, said in December 2025 that “you could say, okay, you just put a headwind now into 2026 for in the range of $700 million. But, even with that, I expect free cash flow to grow, and as I mentioned before, I expect right now anyway free cash flow to be in the low positive single digits [billions].“
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Boeing’s approximate cash flow since 2018 (per MacroTrends) |
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|---|---|---|---|
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2018 |
13.7 billion (positive) |
2023 |
$4.5 billion (positive) |
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2019 |
-$3.95 billion (negative) |
2024 |
-$14.3 billion (negative) |
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2020 |
-$19.42 billion (negative) |
2025 |
-$2 billion (negative, estimated) |
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2021 |
-$3.87 billion (negative) |
2026 |
$2-3 billion (positive, estimated) |
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2022 |
$2.3 billion (positive) |
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Boeing investors care more about cash flow than headline delivery numbers. For those lacking an accounting or financial background, it can be surprising to find out that on-paper profitable companies can still face cash flow issues that can threaten the business. At the start of 2025, CNBC quoted AerCap CEO Aengus Kelly as saying that “Boeing needs cash. It has to convert inventory into cash. (…) How do you get cash? You deliver airplanes. To deliver an airplane, it must be certified.”
Integrating Spirit AeroSystems
Boeing has paid $8.3 billion for Spirit
Another big thing happening in the world of Boeing in 2026 is the reintegration of major supplier Spirit AeroSystems. Boeing spun it off in 2005, but that has led to a loss in control and a drop in quality, motivating the planemaker to take it back over. In December 2025, Boeing announced it had completed the acquisition of Spirit, with the deal being worth around $8.3 billion, including debt.
The manufacturer has acquired all Boeing-related commercial parts of Spirit, including the production of 737 MAX fuselages in Wichita, Kansas. Spirit also produces structures for its 767s, 777s, and 787s. Spirit’s defense work has been moved to a new, semi-independent subsidiary called Spirit Defense. Boeing also took over parts of its Belfast operations, operating under the name Short Brothers.
Airbus didn’t want Boeing to take over parts of its supply chain and so moved to acquire the parts of Spirit AeroSystems related to Airbus aircraft production. As these parts of the business are losing money, Airbus was actually paid $439 million by Spirit to take over these operations related to its A220, A320, and A350 programs. Boeing now has to integrate around 15,000 new workers and Airbus around 4,000.
Boeing To Increase Monthly 737 MAX Production To 47 Aircraft In 2026
Boeing is ramping up its production rates.
New Boeing Military Aircraft
Two military aircraft may enter serial production in 2026
While this article mostly considers Boeing’s commercial enterprises, it’s also worth noting its military aircraft. The US Navy has placed what is expected to be the final order for the F/A-18 Super Hornet, and no more export orders are expected. The final examples are to be delivered in 2027, meaning 2026 will be the final full-year production run.
In March 2025, Boeing was announced as the winner of the NGAD program, and it will now produce the next-generation F-47 fighter jet. The first prototype is in building, and it is expected to fly in 2028. Meanwhile, the delayed T-7A Red Hawk advanced trainer program is now expected to enter low-rate production in 2026.
The large and advanced Boeing MQ-25 Stingray carrier-based drone has already entered low-rate production, and the first operational aircraft deliveries are now expected in late 2026. In 2024, there were reports that Boeing would sell off some of its assets, including space-based assets, to focus on its core airplane-making business. It had been reported that Boeing wanted to sell its troubled Starliner, although no confirmed reports of any sales have emerged since.
Winding Down 777F & 767-300F Production
Fewer than 57 777Fs and 767-300Fs are still to be delivered
As stated, the new ICAO Aeroplane CO₂ Emissions Standard regulations are coming into effect in 2028, meaning that Boeing’s current 777F and Boeing 767-300F designs will no longer meet requirements and will be unable to continue to be produced and certified after 2027. The US has granted an extension for the 767, but the regulation still applies internationally, so Boeing is expected to deliver the last of these freighters in 2027.
In any case, most remaining orders are expected to be delivered in 2026. For the year 2025 through to the end of November, Boeing delivered 33 Boeing 777Fs and 14 Boeing 767-300Fs. As of the time of writing, it has a total of 54 777Fs remaining on the order books, although yhe actual number of remaining deliveries may be lower, as it may not include any December deliveries. The numbers also include six for Russia’s sanctioned Volga-Dnepr Airlines.
Another 21 examples are listed for unidentified customers for the 777F. It is unclear if any of these are likewise sanctioned or otherwise effectively dead orders. A total of 21 Boeing 767-300Fs are listed on order, including eight for identified customers. Most of these will also be delivered in 2026.
