The College Football Playoff National Championship features one team that hasn’t been here in a generation and another that hasn’t been here even in their wildest dreams, but that is the backdrop of the matchup between Miami and Indiana for all the marbles. 

Heading into the most-anticipated matchup of the college football season, oddsmakers certainly aren’t being kind to Miami, as the Hurricanes are a 8.5-point underdog in the national championship game, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Given the Hoosiers’ utter dominance throughout the CFP to this point, not many could blame Vegas for foreshadowing another breeze for Indiana. 

But, a betting spread is just a broad view. What happens when we dive in deeper and break down these teams position-by-position to see who has the leg up? Let’s do just that right now as we look to see who has the edge at those various positions ahead of the CFP National Championship on Monday night in Miami. 

Quarterback 

Indiana: Fernando Mendoza
Miami: Carson Beck 

Preternaturally accurate, Mendoza has been the player who has taken Indiana’s offense to the next level. Both QBs have deadly scramble ability, but with a passing game that mostly relies on screens and short throws, Beck is not asked to do as much as Mendoza is in an offense that asks the Heisman Trophy winner to repeatedly execute tight window and back shoulder throws that are at times undefendable. Beck has thrown Miami out of a game this season (Louisville) and was mostly a passenger in the first two rounds of the playoff. In the semifinal against Ole Miss, however, he did show that he can carry the ‘Canes when they had to have it. But can he do it again? Edge: Indiana

Skill talent 

Indiana: Roman Hemby (RB); Kaelon Black (RB); Elijah Sarratt (WR); Omar Cooper (WR); Charlie Becker (WR); EJ Williams (WR); Riley Nowakowski (TE)
Miami: Mark Fletcher (RB); Charmar Brown (RB); Malachi Toney (WR); Keelan Marion (WR); CJ Daniels (WR); Elijah Lofton (TE)

There is no doubt that Miami has the best offensive player on the field in Malachi Toney, but the depth of Miami’s receiver group is not terribly impressive behind their slot maven. Miami’s passing game moves through Toney. He offers Beck an easy button, often cooking defensive backs on fades and go balls from the slot. His tremendous footwork also allows execution of pivot routes and option routes in the short areas of the field that seem undefendable. He can block on the perimeter and can even be motioned into the core of the formation to add to interior blocking. For a player who is just 18 years old and should be in high school, he’s incredibly complete. 

But if Sarratt is Indiana’s best wideout, Becker and Cooper are better than Daniels and Marion to round out the room. Miami force feeds Toney, who has 132 targets this season, according to Pro Football Focus, the next most is Marion with 82. . 

At running back, Fletcher is the classic bellcow who has come on in the playoff to be the engine to Miami’s offense, but the combination of Hemby and Black have been getting it done all season as a two-headed monster backfield to keep things fresh.

At tight end, neither team gets significant production in the passing game from the position, but Nowakowski is Indiana’s most unheralded offensive player because of what he’s able to do as a blocker. Indiana lines him up in various ways, whether it’s as a true hand-in-the-dirt tight end, or a player who is lined up as more of an H-back off the line of scrimmage, or even at times something approaching an old school fullback especially in the red zone. He changes the presentation of Indiana’s running game and helps with versatility. Edge: Indiana 

Offensive line 

Indiana: Carter Smith (LT); Drew Evans (LG); Pat Coogan (C); Bray Lynch (RG); Adedamola Ajani; Khalil Benson (T)
Miami: Markel Bell (LT); Matthew McCoy (LG); James Brockermeyer (C); Anez Cooper; Francis Mauigoa (RT)

The strength of Miami’s team is, without question, along the lines of scrimmage, especially on the offensive line. Coming into the season, their continuity was looked at as a bright spot. Only Brockermeyer was a newcomer from the portal. And other than Bell, the rest are homegrown talents who have been recruited and developed by Cristobal and offensive line coach Alex Mirabel. Mauigoa stands out as the best of the bunch as a future first-round NFL Draft pick. They are the embodiment of the culture Cristobal, a former star Miami lineman, has tried to instill, and their unique alignments with smaller space between each other — referred to as splits — sets up for a tight-knit group that comes downhill at you in the run game without much need for pulling linemen. 

Indiana’s group is veteran and led by Pat Coogan, who is in his second national championship game in a row after transferring in from Notre Dame. The Hoosiers also mostly come straight at you in the running game, and Coogan helps them often be right in protections. But besides the occasional six offensive lineman look in short yardage, Indiana does not present a bunch of bespoke formations or personnel packages (Miami does primarily with many different variations of bunch sets). Indiana, for the most part, lines up with five linemen with the only window dressing being Nowakowski. They are often also more spread out than Miami. The ‘Canes want to play the game in a phone booth (hence the tight splits), while Indiana is more spread out and taking advantage of the full width of the field. There are different ways to go about their business, but Miami’s is the more physical force. Edge: Miami. 

Front seven 

Indiana: Daniel Ndukwe (Edge); Mikail Kamara (Edge); Mario Landino (DT); Tyrique Tucker (DT); Aiden Fisher LB); Rolijah Hardy (LB); Isaiah Jones (LB)
Miami: Rueben Bain (Edge); Ahkeem Mesidor (Edge); Justin Scott (DT); Ahmad Moten (DT); Wesley Bissainthe (LB); Mohamed Toure (LB); David Blay (LB)

The Hoosiers are relatively undersized and asked to do much more different things than Miami up front on defense. Indiana misses Stephen Dailey, injured in the Big Ten Championship Game postgame celebration, but the Hoosiers have consistently had players step up. Ndukwe, a sophomore, didn’t see the field until Week 8, then had two sacks and a forced fumble in the semifinal in Dailey’s absence. They make up for their lack of size by using their agility to move post snap, whether it’s dropping into passing lanes and simulating rushes where it’s unclear which of six or seven players are rushing or dropping to confuse offenses. The front four also has myriad stunts and twists. They are plenty physical, but they don’t try to win one-on-one matchups straight up for 60 minutes. That’s the job of the ‘Canes, led by Bain and Mesidor; they can pin the ears back and just come wreck shop. Bain alone is the best defensive player on either team, but Mesidor is a plenty capable second fiddle. 

The question is whether Indiana can hold up against the fearsome UM pass rush, while for Miami, it’s about whether it can sort out what is happening up front and if they can hold up for a long time. Due to how Indiana plays on the backend (zone coverage), combined with their ability to drop front players into coverage to flood the intermediary and deep parts of the field, coverage sacks are a serious issue for any team: ask Oregon. Edge: Miami 

Secondary 

Indiana: D’Angelo Ponds (CB); Devan Boykin (CB); Jamari Sharpe (CB); Amare Ferrell (S); Louis Moore (S)
Miami: Zechariah Poyser (S); Jakobe Thomas (S); Ethan O’Connor (CB); Xavier Lucas (CB); Keionte Scott (CB); Damari Brown (CB)

Of note, Miami will be without Xavier Lucas for the first half after a targeting penalty in the CFP semifinal. They are also expected to get corners OJ Frederique and Damari Brown back. Miami relies mostly on a rotation system at corner. Brown hasn’t played in the playoff, while Frederique has a handful of snaps in the semifinal. With Keionte Scott at nickel, the ‘Canes have found a blitzing force who often screams off the edge to bring pressure from the slot. It changes the angles of Miami’s rush paths, and Indiana must be aware of him. 

Indiana clearly showed the prowess of D’Angelo Ponds in the semifinal with his pick six, but he and Sharpe are the consistent forces on the outside for IU. Indiana plays a healthy heaping of zone defense, so while they might not be classic lockdown forces, their eyes on the QB and breaks on the ball make them great. Edge: Even

Coaching 

Indiana: Curt Cignetti 
Miami: Mario Cristobal 

To juxtapose these coaches is to participate in an exercise in preferences. Would you rather an elite and dogged recruiter who will leverage his team’s resources to pluck blue-chip talent and build a physical force? Or would you rather a journeyman who scouts, develops, sets the tone and has an ecosystem so good that basically all of it has stayed together across multiple years. 

The fact that both of these coaches are here is the promise of the current era of college football. Yes, you can do it the old-fashioned way with a high recruiting ranking. But if you know how to identify and nurture productive talents from other programs, the transfer portal is right there for you. 

Cignetti has pulled off a feat that will be the fodder of sports movies for years to come. Akin to Leicester City’s improbable run to the 2016 Premier League title, the Hoosiers have moved from cellar dweller basketball school to ultimate college football success story. So many people want the secret sauce and are interested in how this can be replicated, but the story of Indiana’s success is much more boring (by design): they execute and they’re well coached. They’re a team that is an impressive sum of its parts, and win or lose this championship, there’s no fluke here after beating Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon (twice). 

Cristobal has rid himself of the main issues that have held his Miami back, namely blowing big games with poor clock management. They’ve now won multiple “biggest ‘Canes game in 25 years” en route to the national title game. It would be storybook for the former Cane and Miami native to get over the line for a Miami team that spent most of November looking like they wouldn’t make the playoff at all. Edge: Indiana