How long can they wait? Inside the Ontario Liberals’ stalled leadership race and the shrinking window to make 2026 viable


MPP John Fraser says he is still parliamentary leader, and caucus will get together Monday in person to choose.

Months after Bonnie Crombie’s decision to step down as Ontario liberal Leader triggered the expectation for a leadership contest, senior party insiders say the process has stalled so badly that patience inside the party’s governing bodies is “running out,” with one executive council member warning a small internal committee is effectively “holding the whole party hostage.”

Multiple senior Liberal insiders, including executive council members, said frustration has been mounting for weeks over the party’s failure to release rules, timelines or basic parameters for the leadership contest that will choose Bonnie Crombie’s successor.

“We have no idea what the timeline is. No idea what the buy-in is. No idea what the rules are. And nobody wants to move first and announce a candidature without knowing what game they’re playing,” said a senior Liberal source.

“I’m frustrated, and I think a lot of card-carrying Liberals are frustrated,” another source said. “There’s been very little information coming out from the executive council and the leadership vote committee.”

The sources were granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal party dynamics.

At the heart of the delay is the party’s Leadership Vote Committee (LVC), a small group of volunteers, including four executive council members and several party loyalists appointed at the direction of the party president, tasked with developing recommendations for how the leadership race should be run. Those recommendations must go to the executive council for approval before anything can formally begin.

But that has not yet happened.

“They have the ball. They are the ones who were tasked with coming up with recommendations, and nobody received anything yet,” said one executive council member.

The result, they said, is that a small group is now blocking progress across the entire party.

A senior Liberal source said that designing leadership rules is not complex, noting that internal elections are routinely run by political parties, unions and organizations around the world.

While some within the party have pointed to logistical challenges, including whether to adopt online voting, the source argued Ontario Liberals face fewer complications than the federal party, which had to verify citizenship for leadership voters.

Under the Ontario Liberal constitution, voters must be 14 years old, live in Ontario and not belong to another political party, a significantly lower verification threshold.

Much of the leadership framework is already locked in by the party’s constitution, which prescribes minimum timelines between key milestones such as the call of the race, nomination deadlines, voter cutoffs and voting periods.

Changing those constitutional requirements would require an annual general meeting and approval by the membership, something the party cannot realistically do before the leadership contest itself.

“The rules of the race are almost perfectly prescribed already,” they added. “That’s why it’s so hard to understand why this is taking so long.”

Why timing matters

The delay can have real strategic consequences for the party’s ability to grow membership, fundraise, and even start to prepare for the next election.

Under the party’s constitution, voter eligibility is tied to a “Qualifying Date” set 60 days after the leadership contest is formally called, meaning anyone who joins after that cutoff cannot vote. The longer the party delays calling the race, the narrower the eventual window for campaigns to recruit eligible members.

“If the vote is in October, you’re counting back 60 days, that’s July or August. Which means realistically, you need people signed up by June,” one senior Liberal explained. “That would give you maybe four months to grow membership. That’s not a lot of time.”

A shorter race, insiders warn, would effectively turn the contest into a campaign aimed almost exclusively at existing members, undercutting one of the party’s central post-election lessons, insiders say: that it must grow.

“The whole point of this race should be to expand the party,” said one source. “A rushed timeline does the opposite.”

At the same time, delaying too long carries its own risks.

“Every single day Doug Ford goes unopposed is a day he’s winning,” said another insider. “The longer this drags on, the easier it is for him to call an early election and leave a new leader with no runway.”

Beyond timelines, insiders say the most contentious unresolved questions involve money: leadership buy-in fees, spending limits, and how much of each candidate’s fundraising must be returned to the party.

Those details will shape not only who runs, but how serious the field becomes.

“If the buy-in is too low, you end up with 40 or 50 candidates, half of them not serious,” said one senior party organizer. “If the buy-in is too high, you risk shutting people out. But the reality is: if our leader can’t raise money, we’re screwed.”

Without knowing entry fees, spending limits, or time commitments, potential candidates, particularly those outside politics, may be unwilling or unable to commit.

“Somebody in the private sector can’t take an indefinite leave and spend an unknown amount of money on a race with no parameters,” the source said. “By not making decisions, we are closing the window on good candidates.”

“Imagine you announce, start organizing, and then the rules come out and say the buy-in is $500,000,” one insider said. “Now you have to publicly back out.”

Complicating matters further: under Elections Ontario rules, once a candidate officially declares, they must begin tracking and reporting all campaign-related financial activity. That alone is enough to keep would-be contenders from stepping forward prematurely.

Who benefits from delay?

While some insiders attribute the delay to burnout and volunteer fatigue following a difficult year for the party, others openly question whether politics is also at play.

“If I were a journalist, I’d be asking who benefits from this delay,” they said. “And I’d be looking at the top of the party.”

Several insiders suggested that a shorter race would advantage candidates with existing organizational infrastructure, particularly those who have run leadership campaigns before, while a longer process would level the field for newer participants.

“I can’t help but think that some people are trying to shape the timeline based on who they want to win,” one source said. “That’s the uncomfortable truth people are whispering about.”

Internal dissent growing

Behind the scenes, some executive council members have tried to force action.

Months ago, Noah Parker, who now sits at the executive Council, introduced a motion to impose timelines and deliverables on the Leadership Vote Committee, but it was defeated. After, he pushed for a special executive meeting dedicated solely to the stalled process.

The same source said that patience is wearing thin.

“People’s goodwill is running out,” they said. “This isn’t just about the process anymore. It’s about credibility.”

The executive council is scheduled to meet again this Sunday, but the source said they are not optimistic any concrete progress will emerge.

“If I were betting, I’d bet against us getting anything this month,” they said.

Still, they insisted that allowing the leadership contest to slide into 2027 is not an option.

“Over my dead body does this go into 2027. That feeling is shared by a lot of people.”

“Back in September, the message was: we cannot waste time,” they said. “Now, those same people seem totally fine taking as long as they like.”

This afternoon, Bonnie Crombie made it official and stepped down as Ontario Liberal Leader. Kathryn McGarry, President of the Ontario Liberal Party, said in a statement that “The Ontario Liberal Party will select an interim leader to serve until a permanent leader is chosen,” she wrote.

“The Party’s Executive Council has been working on the details of the upcoming leadership election and will be announcing the date soon.”

MPP John Fraser says he is still parliamentary leader, and caucus will get together Monday in person to choose.



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