Conservative delegates will vote later this month on whether Pierre Poilievre should continue to serve as leader, and while party insiders expect him to easily survive, they say changes are needed to defeat the Liberals in the next election.

A Conservative insider who previously worked for Poilievre said the Tory leader doesn’t need to drastically overhaul his style but has to limit the amount of unforced errors that make him seem unsuited for the country’s top job, citing as an example, his comments last fall that RCMP leadership covered up scandals by former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

The source, who asked not to be identified to share their concerns freely, also pointed to Poilievre’s social media post last week congratulating U.S. President Donald Trump for the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro as something a “conservative influencer would say.”

“The way it was worded, it didn’t read like something a prime minister would say,” the source said.

“That is what I think the challenge is. He has to find a way to thread the needle and still be himself and still be authentic, and still speak to the people he speaks to, but also just present himself as a prime minister enough that he can convince or at least just not scare off everyone else.”

Poilievre and his team faced criticism in the aftermath of last spring’s election for not shifting attacks away from the Liberals and towards Trump as Canadians were angered by calls for the country to become the 51st state.

In the wake of that vote, there were calls for Poilievre to change direction and tone down his aggressive opposition to the Liberals as Prime Minister Mark Carney moved the governing party further to the centre.

Since taking office, Carney has signalled the government’s openness to supporting a new oil pipeline to the West Coast, passed legislation creating a streamlined approval process for major projects and tabled a budget that combined tax breaks for the energy sectors with plans to slow spending and slash public service jobs.

Amid the political realignment, Carney’s Liberals were able to poach two Conservative MPs to cross the floor in the fall sitting.

The moves have raised concerns about Poilievre’s leadership style and his ability to compete with Carney.

For his part, Poilievre has largely stuck to his game plan, turning up attacks on the Liberals for failing to deal with rising food prices and criticizing the government for not aggressively supporting new energy infrastructure projects.

That’s not to say Poilievre hasn’t taken some efforts to improve his image.

He’s cozied up to the media, even granting a sit-down end-of-year interview with CBC and showing up at the Press Gallery Dinner in November.

Still, critics say Poilievre seems too interested in being an attack dog instead of a bridge-building leader.

But the Conservative source said that’s not a fair read, arguing that Poilievre was able to build a broad, diverse coalition — which included union workers and racialized Canadians — that would’ve delivered a victory if not for the historic collapse in support for the NDP.

“He’s probably the only person who could hold that coalition together. So even if his personal numbers are not where you would want me to be, I still think Pierre has a coalition that is his coalition; there is no one waiting in the wings, no one I think that could stick that together the way he has,” the source said.

“The challenge is going to be keeping that coalition together and still finding a path. And I think the most frustrating thing Conservatives is that some of it’s just beyond our control. The NDP got 5.6 per cent [of the vote] in the last election. If the NDP had gone 7 per cent, I think they [the Conservatives] probably would have won. And if the NDP bounce back to 10 per cent in the next election, which I think there’s a very good chance they will, then I think that Pierre is in good shape. I keep saying to people that if Pierre is a stock, now is the time to buy because you’re buying low but I still think that return on that is potentially very big.”

But for this to happen, the source said Poilievre needs to regain the upper hand in pushing the agenda in Ottawa as he was doing in 2023-24 when the Conservatives were comfortably ahead in the polls.

Brad Tennant, a vice-president with Wellington Advocacy and president of a Conservative riding association, agreed and said Poilievre doesn’t need to change course but find ways to “continue to build the tent” by meeting Canadians where they are.

“I think that he’s he’s got to continue to do a lot of the things that made him successful in the past. I don’t think that he’s got to pull a U-turn on anything. But, you know national sentiment changes, and what he’s got to continue to do is like, really, really grow the tent,” he said in an interview.

“Some people think it’s like, ‘oh, you had position A, so you got to move to position B.’ I think what he’s really, really really got to be focused on is just, how does he continue to grow the tent as he as he did in this election, but as he clearly needs to do more in the next one.”

Tennant added that he believes Poilievre will comfortably survive his leadership review during the Conservative convention on Jan. 29-31 in Calgary because of his popularity with the party grassroots.

Only delegates — who are mostly selected by Conservative riding associations — will vote will on the review, a contrast from leadership races where all members can participate.

Kate Harrison, a Conservative strategist and vice-chair of Summa Strategies, said this favours Poilievre.

“I think it should be fairly clear the way that this is trending. And if there were to be legitimate concern, we might be seeing some framing happen right now. But I really do think that Poilievre enjoys a considerable amount of support from the grassroots of the party, and even though the public opinion data doesn’t always show, in terms of his his own favorables, the Conservatives are still polling very well,” she said.

“I think you’re really taking the pulse at the base, and there hasn’t been much to suggest that Poilievre is falling out of favour with with conservatives. And so you couple the delegated nature of it, the just even the expense of getting to Calgary and participating in this, these are die-hard and true-blue supporters. So, I think there’s no reason to think that he shouldn’t have a strong showing.”

Harrison argued that while Carney continues to lead Poilievre in personal approval ratings, the numbers are beginning to shift and more voters could turn on the Liberals if Carney can’t secure a trade deal with the U.S. or fail to address economic concerns.

” I think that the longer we persist without a trade agreement with the U.S., the longer we are unable to get major energy infrastructure projects underway, the more that we’re continuing to deal with a sluggish economy, [the more] food inflation continues to rise, I think a lot of Canadians are becoming skeptical about whether or not Carney is what he promised to be” she said,

“I think that that would come even into greater focus in the election. If you suspect an election might be near, are we going to have an election about the very thing we had just last spring? Are Canadians interested in that? Are they more interested in kind of the forward vision for the country and affordability issues? So, I think that it’s important for Conservatives to keep owning the economic issues that are of concern and then also looking to wedge the government on things that make them maybe a little bit more comfortable.”

Although polls show that Poilievre lags behind Carney in personal approval ratings, most surveys have the Liberals and Conservative in a dead heat, with little changing from the close race seen in the April election.

A mid-December poll from Abacus Data showed that Carney’s favourability rating has fallen to 45 per cent, down from its peak of 51 at the end of May. His disapproval rating has crept up to 35 per cent, the highest level seen since the election.

The +10 margin is the lowest Carney has recorded in Abacus’ tracking poll since before he became Liberal leader and prime minister in March.

Poilievre, on the other hand, is sitting at – 5, with his approval rating at 39 per cent, a slight drop from over the summer. His disapproval rating of 43 per cent is three points lower than its peak during the election campaign.

A Liberal insider recently told iPolitics the Liberals also want to see Poilievre survive.

Stevie O’Brien, a principal and co-founder of Barrack Hill Public Affairs, said last month the ideal situation for the Liberals is Poilievre winning the leadership with around 68 to 71 per cent of the vote because it exposes “cracks in the foundation” that prevents him from trying to pivot to appeal to a broader group of Canadians.

“You can’t have [Poilievre] nose dive too much right now. He is defeatable,” she said, adding that his push to appeal to the Conservative base in the run-up to the leadership vote could already “reduce his chances of winning the next general [election].”