If there are two Cinderella teams left in the College Football Playoff, they face off against one another in the semifinal round in the Fiesta Bowl. Those teams are Miami and Ole Miss, both of which entered the CFP in strange circumstances. 

The Rebels lost Lane Kiffin to LSU before the playoff began and promoted defensive coordinator Pete Golding to head coach ahead of the team’s first-round win over Tulane. As for the Hurricanes, they made the playoff largely because of an early-season win over Notre Dame and so the ACC would have at least one representative. Now, the two teams face off on Thursday, with the winner facing the winner of Oregon-Indiana for the national championship. 

Kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Arizona is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. FanDuel Sportsbook odds have the Hurricanes as 3.5-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored sits at 51.5. Miami is -164 on the money line (wager $164 to win $100) while Ole Miss is a +138 underdog (wager $100 to win $138). Here are our best bets for this CFP semifinal round, which we’ve made with the assistance of the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times. 

Ole Miss +3.5

The Rebels opened the CFP with their second resounding win over Tulane of the 2025 season, and they were able to knock off Georgia in a thrilling game last week thanks to some heroics from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Ole Miss is 9-5 against the spread this year and has covered in each of its last three games. The SportsLine model expects more of the same against Miami, with the Rebels covering the spread in 55% of simulations.

Over 51.5

The Rebels have a high-powered offense and the lowest total they’ve had for a game this year, per SportsLine consensus odds, is 51. Ole Miss is 7-7 to the Over, but the team’s offense is clicking well of late with no drop off since Kiffin’s departure. Chambliss has been a one-man wrecking crew orchestrating the Rebels’ offense as a dual-threat option, and he was a major factor in the Over hitting against Georgia. Miami’s defense has been stellar across the first two rounds, but on the other hand, Ole Miss’ defense can be had and the Hurricanes have firepower on offense along with a veteran quarterback in Carson Beck. Over 51.5 hits in nearly 60% of model simulations. 

Ole Miss money line

The SportsLine model has this as nearly a toss up. Its final score prediction is Miami 29, Ole Miss 28, but the Rebels win in 47% of simulations, returning plenty of value on the money line at plus money. Either the Hurricanes will play for their first national championship in over two decades, or the Rebels will advance and try and win their first title since the 1960s in a wild run after losing their head coach.