Another important aspect to understand here is that oil is not just oil. There are heavy and light crudes and this difference matters for the oil refineries. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are calibrated and built to process and crack heavy crudes like those from Venezuela and Canada. This is why, during the current trade spat with the U.S., the one product which has always avoided tariffs — despite Trump’s threats — was Alberta oil, for the simple reason that the Gulf refineries couldn’t just switch to lighter, sweeter crudes, like U.S. shale, overnight. That switch would cost billions of dollars and would take several years. However, if there were another reliable source of heavy crude for U.S. refineries, then Canadian crude would not be nearly as valuable as it currently is due to the increased competition and Canada’s lack of ability to get our oil to tidewater.