At the time, my colleagues and even family thought I was crazy. Commodities had broadly languished, and the new technology was clearly a game changer. While I was too green to realize it at the time, the first ingredient for a commodity supercycle was already in place. The world had spent years underinvesting in supply, and capital expenditure (capex) remained low. However, this in itself does not cause the cycle. You need demand; more accurately, a generational demand shock. Entering the new millennium, that shock hit: China. Its development, industrialization and rapidly growing middle class were the drivers, and supply struggled to keep up for the next decade.