Hello and welcome to the working week.

Here in London, it is the season for theatres to stage productions of A Christmas Carol. And, in the spirit of Dickens and Scrooge, we too will be visited three times over the next seven days by messengers of past misdemeanours, current challenges and future problems in the form of the central bank heads for the EU, the UK and Japan.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey was already expected to announce a cut to the base rate to a new cycle low of 3.75 per cent before last Friday’s October GDP figure was announced. The fact that the UK economy shrank by 0.1 per cent only underlined the fact, though it has left some wondering whether this will be the last cut in a while — making Bailey’s comments on Thursday, and the strength of the vote in favour of the cut, particularly noteworthy. UK inflation figures, updated on Wednesday, might have an impact on the Monetary Policy Committee conversations, but are unlikely to change the outcome.

The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates at its meeting on Thursday, having revised its collective assessment of inflation risks, judging them to be more in balance. The November Eurozone inflation figure, like the UK’s number due out on Wednesday, is expected to reaffirm that judgment by ticking up to 2.2 per cent. Read more about the prediction here.

The Bank of Japan’s rate decision, due on Friday, remains finely balanced, with an increase marginally more likely than a hold as hinted at by governor Kazuo Ueda in a dovish speech last week. For further insights, read his interview in the Financial Times here.

There is other important economic data aside from rate-setting and inflation reports as both the UK and US will be publishing monthly employment updates, the latter delayed by the federal shutdown.

There is a diary note for the Ukraine conflict in that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has invited British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, alongside other European leaders and possibly a US delegation, to discuss peace plans in Berlin.

Flying to the German capital early in the week might be a particularly attractive option for Starmer given that on Monday he is scheduled to get a grilling from senior MPs on the Liaison Committee, asking questions about his floundering government’s first 18 months in power and whether it is delivering on its “plan for change”. If you want an FT view on this administration’s scorecard, listen to the Political Fix Live podcast.

Sticking with UK politics, there is going to be a five-day doctors’ strike in England from Wednesday. Or perhaps not. It all depends on the outcome of a survey by the British Medical Association of its members, expected on Monday. What is definitely happening is that Wes Streeting, the health and social care secretary, who has been battling against the BMA’s pay demands, will have to answer questions from MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee the day the BMA’s strike action was scheduled to begin.

We will have a festive sprinkle of company reports, including Nike, Carnival, General Mills and WHSmith, the latter being notable chiefly for its having to admit last week that its auditor PwC needed more time to get the numbers together, the latest in a string of upsets that has dented the retailer’s share price as the chart below illustrates.

One more thing . . . 

The Week Ahead is taking a break next week for Christmas. I’m using the occasion to stay at home with the family to enjoy the delights of London at this time of year (apparently, I’m not alone). I will be returning on December 28 for my annual look forward to the major events of the coming 12 months, The Year Ahead.

Thank you to all of you who have shared your highlights for 2026 — please keep them coming by emailing me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or hitting reply to the emailed version of this newsletter. In the meantime, I wish you all a very merry Christmas.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• OECD publishes G20 GDP growth report

• Canada: November consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• EU: October industrial production figures

• Japan: December Tankan survey of Japanese business sentiment

• UK: Rightmove December House Price Index

Tuesday

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem to speak at a Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal event in Quebec

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• South Africa: Day of Reconciliation. Financial markets closed

• UK: December employment figures. Also, UK Finance publishes card spending statistics

• US: November employment data (revised release date)

• Results: Hollywood Bowl FY, IG Group trading update, SThree FY trading update

Wednesday

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York FX Market Structure Conference

• EU: November Eurozone harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: November CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: General Mills Q2, IntegraFin FY, Lennar Q4, Micron Technology Q1, Serco pre-close trading update

Thursday

• Alphawave IP acquisition by Qualcomm expected to become effective, if approved at a Sanction Hearing on December 16

• Australia: November labour force data

• EU: European Central Bank’s interest rate announcement

• Mexico: interest rate announcement

• Norway: interest rate announcement

• UK: Bank of England’s interest rate announcement. Also, British Retail Consortium December Consumer Sentiment Monitor

• US: November real earnings and CPI inflation rate data (revised release date). Also, The Conference Board Employment Index

• Results: Accenture Q1, CarMax Q3, Cintas Q2, Currys HY, Darden Restaurants Q2, FedEx Q2, Nike Q2

Friday

• Germany: Q3 services PPI inflation rate data

• Japan: Interest rate announcement plus November CPI inflation rate data

• UK: Q3 banking sector regulatory capital, plus November retail sales, public sector finances and HM Revenue & Customs’ tax receipts summary

• US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

• Results: Carnival Q4, ConAgra Brands Q2, Lamb Weston Q2, PayChex Q2, WHSmith FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium: EU-Angola ministerial meeting in Brussels

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer appears before the Liaison Committee, facing 90 minutes of questioning about his work. Separately, former prime minister Rishi Sunak appears before the national Covid-19 Inquiry to begin answering questions on the economic response to the pandemic when he was Britain’s chancellor

Tuesday

• Bangladesh: Victory Day, marking independence from Pakistan in 1971

• Switzerland: WTO General Council meeting commences in Geneva

• UK: Office for Budget Responsibility chief of staff Laura Gardiner and Budget Responsibility committee members Tom Josephs and David Miles appear before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee

Wednesday

• Australia: crucial third test in cricket’s Ashes Series begins in Adelaide. The visitors, England, are down 0-2 in the five-match series

• UK: Wes Streeting, health and social care secretary, to be questioned by MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee about the NHS and its ability to cope with the current flu outbreak, and the five-day strike by resident doctors in England over pay, which was due to begin today, but could be called off after a new offer was made by the government

Thursday

Friday

• UK: Christmas number one single announced on the official UK Music Charts on BBC Radio 1

• US: deadline for the Department of Justice to release the files related to its investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, after Congress passed a bill compelling its release

Saturday

• Brazil: Mercosur Summit of leaders from the South American trading bloc countries due to meet and possibly sign the Mercosur-EU trade deal

• UK: 70th anniversary of Cardiff being officially recognised as the capital of Wales

Sunday

• Austria: 50th anniversary of the Opec siege in Vienna, when “Carlos the Jackal” led a six-person commando that stormed a ministerial meeting and took over 60 hostages, including 11 oil ministers

• Morocco: Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros