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The US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in September to its smallest level in more than five years, raising hopes that net exports provided a boost to economic growth in the third quarter.

The gap between exports and imports of goods fell by 11 per cent from the previous month to $52.8bn, according to data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday.

That shrank the deficit to its smallest since June 2020 and was also narrower than the $63.3bn gap that economists polled by Reuters had predicted.

The 3 per cent increase in exports from August to $289.3bn was mostly fuelled by non-monetary gold. Imports climbed 0.6 per cent.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial third-quarter GDP estimate, to be released on December 23, will take in these trade figures.

Following the data, the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve estimates that real GDP growth for the three months ended September 30 will come in at 3.6 per cent, up 0.1 percentage points from its previous forecast on December 5. Economists surveyed by Reuters ahead of the trade data release are forecasting growth of 3 per cent for the period.

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has expressed optimism about the economy. “We’re going to finish the year, despite the Schumer shutdown, with 3 per cent real GDP growth,” he told CBS on Sunday, referencing the 43-day government shutdown that many Republicans are blaming Democratic Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer for.

Economists acknowledged that net trade could have boosted GDP in the third quarter, but also cautioned against overemphasising its importance due to the effect of the gold exports.

Capital Economics’ chief North America economist Paul Ashworth said the $8.7bn increase in exports in September mostly comprised a $6.1bn increase in non-monetary gold shipments, “which won’t show up in GDP”.

Pantheon Macroeconomics senior US economist Oliver Allen said he expected the big jump in exports of gold bullion to “almost certainly unwind” in the fourth quarter, meaning the drop in the trade deficit in September “tells us little”.

Allen said, though, he now expected the contribution from net trade during the quarter to be higher than previously forecast, “leaving some slight upside risk to our nowcast for GDP growth of 3.5 per cent”.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed to shrink the US’s trade deficit, using tariffs as one tool to do so. The White House said in a statement that Thursday’s figures represented “more proof that President Donald J. Trump’s America First trade agenda is working.”