The countdown to the 2026 World Cup is on! Each day ahead of the tournament’s return to North America, Yahoo Sports will highlight an insight or moment that showcases just how grand the world’s biggest sporting spectacle has become — even beyond the expanded field of this year’s global event.

Advertisement

As the 2026 World Cup becomes the first to grow to 48 teams, this summer will see four countries making their World Cup debuts: Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. And while these debutants have a steep road ahead of them in the group stage, they have a long history of countries making a splash in their first World Cup to fall back on.

Of the 57 countries that have made their debuts since 1950 (the start of the World Cup’s “modern era”), only 12 have gone on to advance to the knockout round in their first year at the tournament — making it a rare national team that is able to go on an early Cinderella run.

Debutants who …

• … made the knockout round: Northern Ireland (1958), Wales (1958), Denmark (1986), Costa Rica (1990), Nigeria (1994), Saudi Arabia (1994), Ghana (2006)

• … won a game in the knockout round: Ireland (1990), Senegal (2002), Ukraine (2006)

• … finished in third place: Portugal (1966), Croatia (1998)

Most of that is because of the difficulty of the group stage. Even in the old 16-, 24- and 32-team formats, which sometimes had some third-place finishers advance, it’s been rare for debutants to pick up more than a point or two in group play. Only one debutant in the modern era, Nigeria in 1994, went on to win their group; Nigeria then lost to Italy in extra time after advancing to the knockout round.

Advertisement

Three teams made it past the first knockout game but fell into the quarterfinals — with all of those wins coming in incredibly close games. Ireland beat Romania in penalties during its debut in 1990 before losing in the quarterfinals; Ukraine did the same to Switzerland in 2006. And Senegal beat Sweden off a golden goal in 2002, before falling to a golden goal from Tunisia in the next round.

But the biggest aspirations are Portugal and Croatia, which in 1966 and 1998 (respectively) ended in third place in their World Cup debuts. Portugal, as part of a 16-team tournament, beat North Korea in the first knockout game before losing to eventual champion England, but defeated the Soviet Union in the bronze medal match. 32 years later, in the first year of the 32-team format, Croatia beat Romania and Germany in the knockout before losing to France, but came back to win third place by defeating Netherlands.

However, recent debutants have not had the same kind of luck. None of the countries making their World Cup debuts in 2022 (Qatar), 2018 (Iceland, Panama) or 2014 (Bosnia and Herzegovina) made it out of the group stage.

Advertisement

The odds of advancing deep into the tournament get slimmer as the field gets larger, even as the chances of advancing to the knockout get a little easier. And so this year’s debutants might have a harder time crawling to a surprise third-place finish — but they have some success to look back on as they try.