Numbers game – iPolitics


Welcome back to Campaign Countdown, our now daily newsletter devoted to covering everything about the 2025 federal election.

Hello politicos!

Welcome back to Campaign Countdown, our now daily newsletter devoted to covering everything about the 2025 federal election.

Here’s our recap of the day it’s been on the trail. Want real-time updates? Check out iPolitics each day for our live blog.

(If you’re enjoying Campaign Countdown, share this link with your friends so they can get it too.)

Enough chit-chat, let’s get to the news!

Campaign Digest

With less than a week to go before election day, the Conservatives unveiled their much anticipated platform, becoming the last major party to do so.

Leader Pierre Poilievre said Tuesday that the platform that would bring change that “offers the prospect of restoring the Canadian promise.”

“The promise that hard work gives you a great life in a beautiful, affordable house on a safe street, protected by our brave troops under our proud flag. That is the Canadian promise. That is the promise the country made to me, my wife, Anaida. It’s the promise that it made to countless generations who came before us. It is that promise that makes us so proud to be Canadians. It is the promise that we all owe to the next generation.”

Among the pledges included in the platform, according to the Globe and Mail: “The Conservatives are also promising to ‘never hike taxes’ while in power unless a referendum allows. They are promising a Taxpayer Protection Act to ban new or higher federal taxes without asking taxpayers first in a referendum.”

When the floor was open to questions from the media, Poilievre was asked about why the party banked in the platform some $20 billion in projected revenue from tariffs, which he has already pledged to “redistribute” to Canadians in the form of tax cuts, as well as use the money to support affected industries.

In his response, Poilievre reaffirmed that would be part of the plan for the money, but it would also go to cover the cost of all the other tax cuts that his government would bring in.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney, who was in Quebec, took aim at the Conservative platform, which he slammed as unserious and boasting “phantom numbers.”

“There’s just magical economic growth happening, that just falls from the sky, but he doesn’t know how to manage it,” he said of Poilievre.

Carney argued that Poilievre would be a “nightmare for Canadians,” and takes umbrage at the thought of comparing it to the competing offering from his party.

“There’s a Bring it Home tax cut that doesn’t even come home until year five,” he said. “These numbers are a joke. We’re not in a joke, we’re in the worst crisis of our lives, and it takes a serious government.”

He also pointed to economist Mike Moffatt, who called the Conservative costing a “disaster.”

Though, it’s worth nothing that University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe slammed Carney’s Liberal platform as moving Canada away from a “credible & sustainable fiscal strategy.”

Turning back to our look at competitive races, our latest Battleground Breakdown looks at the Yukon riding, when one-term Liberal incumbent Brendan Hanely looks to beat back a challenge from Conservative candidate and former MP Ryan Leef.

Also, our Toronto-based QP Briefing reporter Barbara Patrocinio has this profile on onetime provincial hopeful turned Liberal candidate Karim Bardeesy, who’s running in the Toronto riding of Taiaiako’n–Parkdale—High Park. It’s a race that has no shortage of Queen’s Park connections — his top challenger is NDPer Bhutila Karpoche, who represented the riding provincially from 2018 until earlier this year.

Polling talk

It’s the final countdown folks and the race is still very close — at least on a national, topline basis.

A new poll from Leger has the Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points (43 to 39 per cent), though the Liberals leading by wider margins in Ontario (seven points), Quebec (16 points over the Bloc Quebecois), and 18 points in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are in front of the Tories by a hair in B.C. (two points), while the Conservatives lead in Alberta (nine points) and the Prairies (32 points).

The other pollsters are also showing a tight national race.

Nanos and Liaison have the Liberals leading the Conservatives by identical 43 to 37 per cent margins, while Pallas has the Liberals with a slightly smaller 43 to 38 per cent lead, and Mainstreet has the two parties knotted up at 40 per cent apiece.

That’s all from us today. Watch your inbox every day for our latest campaign dispatch as we keep you posted on everything about the 2025 federal election.

Also, send us your feedback and news tips to [email protected].

Take care!



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