Things are delicately poised at the top of LaLiga as we return from the international break with Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid all still harbouring hopes of winning the title.

Since the turn of the year, all three teams have been league leaders and all three have been reeled in by the chasing pack. The most recent twist came on March 16 when Atlético were beating Barça 2-0 at home with 20 minutes remaining, only to lose 4-2. That result put Barça level with Madrid on 60 points, but above their great rivals on head-to-head courtesy of their stunning 4-0 win at the Bernabéu in October, while Atlético are on 56 points.

Barça play their rearranged match against Osasuna on Thursday (stream LIVE at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ in the U.S.), after which each of the top three will have 10 LaLiga games left to play. But even if they win that match to go three points clear, this season has shown there are still plenty of bumps in the road before any team is crowned champions of Spain.

ESPN’s Real Madrid correspondent Alex Kirkland and Barcelona correspondent Sam Marsden are joined by LaLiga experts Sid Lowe and Graham Hunter to discuss the main talking points of the title race so far, look at what is to come and, crucially, each predict their winner.

Who were your title favourites at the start of the season, and are they still now?

Alex Kirkland: I backed Real Madrid to win LaLiga this season. It wasn’t a controversial suggestion: Madrid were reigning champions, and they’d just signed Kylian Mbappé. Simple. But two things caught me by surprise: Madrid’s all-round performance as a team getting worse, or at least becoming less consistent, post-Mbappé; and Barcelona’s near-instantaneous improvement under Hansi Flick.

Flick’s Barça have been much better, and much quicker, than I expected them to be. And Madrid have often confounded, dropping unnecessary points against so-called lesser teams — Mallorca, Las Palmas, Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Osasuna — and failing to beat their big rivals, drawing twice with Atlético, and being thrashed 4-0 at home by Barcelona.

Sam Marsden: Madrid were the obvious pick, but with the glorious benefit of hindsight, did we underestimate two Germans — Flick and Toni Kroos? The former has far exceeded all expectations at Barça so far; the latter’s retirement has left a gaping hole in Madrid’s midfield.

Sid Lowe: Carlo Ancelotti tried to tell us. Kroos, he said, even towards the end of last season, was the truly irreplaceable player. And while we’re talking in truths, Mbappé was a footballer they didn’t need. Note: need. Which isn’t to say it wasn’t good to have him, of course it was. He may well be the best player in the world, his performances have been good — yes, even early on when everyone was saying he was a problem — and there is probably no front line quite like theirs anywhere (although Barcelona have forced us into rethinking that.)

As Ancelotti says, there’s no problem getting goals, no issue with them; it’s the balance and the defensive part of the game that’s the issue. Thing is, that is related to them too. As ever, Carlo seems to have found a way of making it work, at least in the Champions League, on the games where motivation isn’t a problem (even if collectively it doesn’t always convince). But, like Sam and Alex, I feel like the balance has definitely tilted Barcelona’s way. Not just because of the results and the (potential) points lead but also because they came through the bad part, because of how they’re playing, and because of how good they look physically, how direct they can be when it suits them, which may well be the biggest surprise. Raphinha and Pedri are probably the two outstanding players so far.

Just let me mention Atlético, if only because no one has yet. Don’t entirely rule them out.

Graham Hunter: My refrain in August was: Atleti “should,” Barça “could”… but Madrid “will.” The ebb and flow over the subsequent months has been tremendous fun: sometimes confusing, but hugely entertaining. I hope it has won some converts to LaLiga, which is still, by some considerable distance, the best-quality championship in the world.

I honestly think that mountains of nonsense have been spoken about the absence of Kroos, and I cannot believe how little people — within the game, within the media, and among fans — are listening to what Ancelotti keeps saying about his players being absolutely knackered, mentally and physically. This, in my opinion, is the No. 1 reason why the reigning champions have been kept in check by an emerging power like Barcelona and why we now have a grandstand finish. But, given what is being done to the players, at what cost?

Marsden: I do agree with Graham, but I don’t think tiredness is the sole reason Madrid’s attackers — and, at times, Jude Bellingham — have not worked back. I remember the headline on Marca’s website when Madrid lost 1-0 to Espanyol despite fielding a front four of Bellingham, Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo: “Not even Bellingham comes back.” It’s something Ancelotti himself has mentioned.

That’s also an area where Barça have excelled under Flick. No team has completed more sprints and only Rayo, in one game more, have registered more high-speed sprints.

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Why has the league leader changed so many times?

Marsden: What is hard to explain is how quickly Barça and Madrid gave up commanding leads. Barça led Madrid by nine points and Atlético by 10 at the start of November, yet they were knocked off top spot before Christmas. Madrid moved four clear of Atlético and 10 ahead of Barça at the end of January; they then won one of their next five. Atlético, meanwhile, won eight in a row to reach the summit just before Christmas. Since getting there, they have won just three of their subsequent nine league games.

The contrast has been perplexing. Has it been down to focus? Complacency? While the nature of the drop-offs has been alarming, the fact all three teams have, at times, been inconsistent is more understandable: Madrid have had bad luck with injuries during a period of adaptation to life with Mbappé and without Kroos; Barça have a young team and a relatively small squad; Atlético have good depth, but perhaps lack the quality of the other two across the pitch. And they’ve all been dealing with a huge load of games across LaLiga, the Copa del Rey and an expanded Champions League schedule.

Lowe: There isn’t one single reason, I don’t think, but here are a few: the number of games, injuries, and new-ness. Which is to say: the fact that Atlético is a new-ish project with new players (and in truth, their elite players might not be quite up there with those of the other two … Rodrigo De Paul and Julián Alvarez, you ask? Maybe); that Barcelona were doing something new, too (and are young and have a new idea to bed in); and that Madrid had a balance to find.

I would like to think the competitive level of the other sides plays a part, too. And, to be honest, I think there has been a mental process going on, an element of disengaging: Madrid start thinking it’s OK, they’ll win; Barcelona winning the Clásico and thinking it’s done; Atlético climbing top and momentarily taking eye of the ball, or perhaps just having reality catch up with them. All of this, it should be stressed, is within the context of three really good teams, but none of them perfect.

Hunter: Focus, energy and good coaching. The focus part is underlined by the fact that, until very recently, all three of LaLiga’s leading clubs were competing for the Treble — Madrid, in fact, began the 2024-25 season with the opportunity to win an unbelievable seven trophies. When you consistently play three games in seven or eight days, it is an immensely difficult job to focus, rest, correct errors, refocus, repeat the process and keep winning.

Energy is obvious: we are asking far too much of our most entertaining players, meaning that they will more regularly be burned out mentally and physically, and they will more regularly be picking up minor injuries that don’t rob them of the entire season, but make their ability to play at peak level staccato rather than consistent.

Finally, good coaching. LaLiga is jam-packed with clubs whose squads don’t necessarily look exceptional. But they’re so brilliantly coached that if one of the big teams is under-par, there are hungry, aggressive and strategically clever teams ready to haul them down. Long may that last.

Kirkland: It really is striking how each of these three teams has suffered a near-catastrophic wobble at some point. Barcelona’s was the most eye-catching: one win in eight league games between November and January was historically bad, making their subsequent recovery even more impressive. Although it’s also worth saying that in a number of those games, they didn’t actually play that badly.

Madrid’s dropped points haven’t all come at once like that; some came at the start of the season as the team struggled to find its identity, and then last month they went three games without a win. As Sid said: three good teams, all flawed, none of them the finished article (although in that sense, maybe Atlético have fewer excuses.)

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Apart from the Clásico in mid-May, where and how else could the title be won and lost?

Lowe: The beauty of football of course is precisely the fact that you don’t know … So you look for the games where you think that the three sides might drop points, but maybe that’s the wrong thing to do. And here’s a thought: rather than looking at opponents, should we be looking at dates? And, in particular, dates in other competitions?

For example, all three teams are still in the Copa del Rey. Three days before the final on April 26, Madrid are at Getafe, Barcelona have Mallorca at home and Atlético host Rayo.

Barcelona go to Leganes and Madrid between their next Champions League games, and the Clásico follows a potential Champions League semifinal second leg. They all have testing trips in the final few weeks: Atlético are at Osasuna in week 36, Madrid at Sevilla in week 37 and Barcelona at Athletic Club on the final day.

Hunter: The winning and losing of this league title will principally be determined by the side that makes the fewest errors on the pitch, in preparation, in mentality and in how to keep their best players fit. The obvious thing is arithmetic — who wins the most points from now on — but the cold winds which can cause a champion-elect to catch a chill can, and will, come from the Copa del Rey and the Champions League. And let’s not forget that every club will be anxious to avoid any injury concerns which may arise from the March international break (Pau Cubarsí’s early exit from Spain’s first match against Netherlands, for example.)

Mood, hunger, fitness, momentum — all of these will be affected by how the big three clubs cope with their knockout ties, domestically and in Europe. Going “all in” is much easier in poker than it is in football, when you’re tilting at trophies to either make or save your season.

Marsden: Like Sid says, there are fixtures and dates that can be singled out, but ultimately the dropped points this season have often come when least expected. Who had Barça losing at home to Las Palmas and Leganés? Madrid slipping up at Espanyol? Atleti’s long winning streak ending at Leganés? It’s a huge week for Barça this week, too, as they’re forced to play their rearranged game with Osasuna on Thursday in what is technically still the international break, potentially without South Americans stars Raphinha and Ronald Araújo.

Kirkland: I think Atlético’s next three games will determine if they’re still in the race or not. If they win at Espanyol this weekend, beat Barcelona to reach the Copa del Rey final and then get a result at Sevilla, their confidence will be high again. They’ve got some very winnable games after that. Real Madrid’s home record is near perfect, bar the Clásico, so you’d expect them to deliver at the Bernabéu: but they might drop points at Alavés and Getafe.

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We could have the lowest title-winning points total since Madrid won in 2006-07 with 76 points. What does that say about the league?

Hunter: The main explanation is the extraordinary match load that Spain’s top teams, particularly Madrid, have to bear. There are more Champions League matches, the Spanish Supercopa is played abroad in midseason, Spain’s three biggest clubs are all still involved in the Copa del Rey at the semifinal stage and Los Blancos had the Intercontinental Cup to jam into their calendar. And this is all after a long summer for many of the top players. Clubs who would aspire to register a 100-point season have footballers who are at their absolute outside limit of creativity and athleticism. The quality we see, in context, is miraculous, but the points totals suffer.

Marsden: I also think there is more belief among the other teams that they can beat the top sides. During that era when Barça and Madrid were touching 100 points, it often felt like the opposition would write off visits to Camp Nou or the Bernabéu. All the points Graham rightly makes have perhaps contributed to that changing. The Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo factor has also been removed, which has had a double effect: it reduces the fear factor for opponents (although, moving forward, there is an emerging crop of world-class talent at all three clubs to fear) and makes dropped points feel less critical at the top of the table. That said, from now, every draw or defeat will feel crucial.

Lowe: I think this ties into the above question about the lead changing so much. The top teams have stronger opponents to face and their own physical and mental fatigue to deal with. There is also that sense within each club that they are still trying to build (and also an awareness that others are too … were they too aware that they would get a second chance?)

Kirkland: It says that there are a lot of other good teams in LaLiga. Athletic Club, Villarreal and Real Betis are in fourth, fifth and sixth place for a reason. And even the teams below them — Mallorca, Celta Vigo, Rayo — can be very difficult to play against. Add that to the fact that Barça, Madrid and Atlético are far from perfect, and you get a more competitive league. And that’s a good thing.

And, finally, who will win LaLiga and why?

Kirkland: Barcelona. They’re consistently playing the best football, scoring the most goals, and they showed against Atlético that they’re capable of winning even when they’re not at their best. And I’d tip them to beat Madrid in what might be a decisive Clásico at Montjuïc on May 11.

Marsden: Given how the campaign has gone, I expect all three teams to drop more points, but Barça have room for error now. They could even lose the Clásico 3-0 and still win the league if they win their game in hand and match Madrid’s results in the other fixtures. Plus, they’re the in-form team right now after seven straight wins in LaLiga. Don’t rule Madrid out, though. It will go to the wire.

Lowe: I always feel like Madrid will somehow find a way, but Barcelona’s potential lead does matter and they too are finding a way this year. I still think Europe and the Copa may help to decide the league. I want to hang on to Atlético, but I think it’s Barcelona as favourites and Madrid very, very close but now just behind.

Hunter: It’s a two-horse race now. Any new injuries might become a decisive factor. It’s a Madrid 51%-49% Barça split.

LaLiga title odds per ESPN BET

Barcelona: -160
Real Madrid: +175
Atlético Madrid: +850