But the Democratic contenders have raised eye-popping sums and spent heavily on advertising, fueling GOP concerns.

“It definitely creates a lot of anxiety that there’s that much money coming in from all over the country,” Patronis said. “And they’re driving it into a part of Northwest Florida that’s never seen this much money ever spent on a campaign in the state’s history.” 

Patronis’ Democratic opponent, gun control activist Gay Valimont, raised $6.4 million from Jan. 9 to March 12, while Patronis raised $1.1 million over that same period of time, according to fundraising reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission. 

Republican leaders have raised more concerns about the 6th District race, which had an even wider fundraising gap. Fine raised $561,000 in the most recent fundraising period, while his Democratic opponent Josh Weill raised a whopping $9.7 million. Fine has recently spent $600,000 of his own money on his campaign.

Early vote returns are also driving some GOP concerns about the 6th District race, with Democrats pulling even with Republicans despite their registration disadvantage. Meanwhile in the 1st District, Republicans make up a majority of the early returns. Democrats have typically turned out in heavier numbers in early voting in recent years, while a greater share of Republican voters tend to show up on Election Day.

Fine acknowledged the early vote gap in a Wednesday appearance on former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. 

“The Democrats are mad and the Republicans aren’t. And we have to make them mad. We have to make them understand just what’s at stake,” Fine said, later adding, “I know we have good election days, but we need to run up that score right now.”

Fine and Patronis have gotten a boost from GOP outside groups that have hit the airwaves in recent days. Conservative Fight PAC and Defend American Jobs, which is tied to cryptocurrency executives, have launched ads touting Trump’s support for both candidates and targeting their Democratic opponents. A super PAC tied to billionaire Elon Musk also began spending several thousand dollars in both races on “texting services.”

The Democratic candidates haven’t had help from outside groups. The Democratic National Committee did send some funds to the Florida Democratic Party to help with poll watchers and field organizers. DNC vice chairs David Hogg and Malcolm Kenyatta also traveled to the 6th District, and DNC Chairman Ken Martin will also campaign there this weekend. 

Valimont said it was a mistake for the national party to ignore her race. 

“People are looking at the percent of people that are registered Republicans here and they’re saying, ‘There’s no way,’” Valimont said. “I think there is a way.”

Democratic longshots

Republicans are still bullish they will ultimately win both races.

“We’re confident we’re gonna win the seat,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., told reporters this week about the 6th District race, later adding that Republicans are feeling “comfortable” about the 1st District.  

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., also acknowledged that the races could be difficult for Democrats to win. 

“These districts are so Republican, there would ordinarily be no reason to believe that the races will be close,” Jeffries said this week. “But what I can say, almost guaranteed, is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly overperform.”

Valimont and Weil believe they have a path to victory by leveraging lower turnout, energizing Democrats, and winning over no-party voters and even some Republicans. Both said Trump and the Republican Congress’ early actions could push some GOP voters to their corners. 

Valimont lost to Gaetz in November, but said the conversation in the district has changed since then, amid cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs as part of the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency’s effort to slash the size of the federal government. 

The 1st District has the most veterans of any House seat in Florida, and the second-most in the country, according to the VA, and Valimont has pledged to fight to bring a VA hospital to the district. 

“It is bringing in more people that we weren’t counting on .. The Trump Republicans that were firmly in Trump’s corner that have lost their jobs. And they understand that he doesn’t care about them,” Valimont said.

Patronis backed DOGE and the federal cuts, and said supporting veterans would be a top priority if he is elected. 

“Elon has done nothing but brought transparency to some of the ridiculousness of some of the expenditures out of the federal government,” he said. 

Weil said he was spurred to run because, as a teacher, he was concerned about threats to the Education Department, which Trump is seeking to dismantle. Weil also noted that the 6th District has a sizable population of seniors who could be affected by cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Nearly 30%of the district’s population are over the age of 65, according to census data. 

“They voted in the last election for economic relief and now they’re looking at threats to their fixed income. They’re looking at cuts to Medicaid and Medicare,” Weil said.

Weil also launched an attack ad against Fine, accusing Fine of supporting efforts to cut Medicaid funds and tying him to Musk’s comments that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme,” though the ad stops short of mentioning Musk by name. 

Running in seats Trump won handily, neither Valimont nor Weil have directly targeted Trump or Musk in their races, even as Democrats in next week’s state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin make Musk an effective foil.

“I’m not running against them, I’m running against Randy Fine,” Weil said, suggesting that Fine has centered his campaign on serving Trump. 

Polls close in the 1st District, which is in the central time zone, at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, while polls close in the 6th District at 7 p.m. ET.