Canadians are heading to the polls on Monday and the last wave of polling suggests it will be close race, with the Liberals narrowly in front.

Final polls from Abacus, Leger and Ipsos all show the Liberals leading the Conservatives by single-digit margins, though it’s unclear if it would be enough for a majority government.

Leger, whose final poll was released Saturday, has the Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points nationally (43 to 39 per cent), and posting larger leads in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are also narrowly in front in B.C.

The firm said these numbers would translate into a slim majority or strong minority for the Liberals, and historic losses for the NDP, which is polling at 8 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois is polling at 6 per cent.

It’s a similar situation over at Abacus, who has the Liberals leading the Tories by two points nationally, with the NDP at a more respectful 10 per cent and the Bloc at 6.

And while the regional numbers give a boost to the Liberals, it’s not clear if they spell out a majority. In Ontario, the Liberals are leading the Conservatives by only three points — they bested them by five in 2021. However, in Quebec, the Liberals are leading the Bloc by 10 points, a big jump from their 2 point win almost four years ago.

In B.C., the Liberals are trailing the Conservatives by two points, but that’s actually a vast improvement from the 2021 showing, when the party won the most seats in the province (15) despite finishing third in the popular vote.

CEO David Coletto told iPolitics that if the firm’s numbers play out exactly, a “majority could be in doubt.”

This is because the Liberals need to rack up huge seat totals out east to push them into majority status.

In 2015, the last time the Liberals won a majority, the party swept Atlantic Canada (32 seats), took 40 seats in Quebec and won 80 in Ontario. But in the rest of the country, the Liberals won only 32 seats, over half of them in B.C. (17).

If the Liberals, as expected, win big in Atlantic Canada and flirt with 2015 levels in Quebec, they will still need to win around 80 seats in Ontario to have their eyes on a majority. But if the party’s polling resurgence out west plays out on election day, and the party can book some 30+ plus seats in the region, the Liberals can stumble slightly in Ontario and still win over 172 seats, albeit narrowly.

The final numbers of Ipsos suggest the Liberals could be on track to return to majority status.

The pollster has the Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points nationally (42 to 38 per cent), and the numbers look even better by province. The Liberals lead the Bloc by 15 points in Quebec, and are out in front of the Conservatives by 8 points in Ontario, and besting them by three points in B.C.

Ipsos cautions that despite the numbers, turnout — as always — will be the determining factor.

“As ever, voter turnout will decide the composition of parliament, and the size of the Liberal victory will come down to how motivated each party’s supporters are to vote, and which party can translate those good intentions into cast ballots,” read the pollster’s report.

It’s expected that Mainstreet and Nanos will release their final polls on Sunday.

Mainstreet’s most recent survey (based on results up until Saturday) shows a very close race, with the Liberals leading the Conservatives by one point — 44 to 43 per cent. The NDP and Bloc are far back in third place, tied at 5 per cent. The Greens and People’s Party are all knotted up at 1 per cent.

According to Mainstreet’s polling dashboard, those numbers would translate into a small but healthy majority for the Liberals, with the party set to win 179 seats. With the House set to expand to 343 seats, 172 are needed for a majority.

The Conservatives would come in at second with 138 seats, followed by the Bloc at 21, the NDP at 3 and the Greens at 2.

Nanos’ latest poll (based on responses from up until Saturday) has the Liberals narrowly in front of the Conservatives — 43 to 39 per cent. But as CTV reports, the Liberals are faring even better when it looking at the regionals. The party is leading by double digits in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, by six points in Ontario, and are tied with the Conservatives in B.C.

More to come…