The Parti Québécois’s dominance in the polls for nearly two years and its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s promise to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty during his first term have reverberated all the way to the federal capital.

Officials in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government held discussions this fall to determine how Ottawa should respond to the PQ’s rhetoric in Quebec City, according to Radio-Canada sources.

So far, the offices of the prime minister, his Quebec lieutenant and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc have been involved in these conversations, according to two Liberal sources familiar with the matter.

The idea, one source said, is not for the federal government to become a counterweight to the PQ. “That’s up to the Quebec Liberal Party,” the source said. Rather, it’s to ensure that the messaging from elected officials in Ottawa is consistent.

A lot can change in a year, the sources noted. Although the PQ has about a 20-point lead in the polls, Plamondon’s election in the provincial vote scheduled for October 2026 is not yet a foregone conclusion.

At the same time, Ottawa does not want to be caught off guard, as some criticized Jean Chrétien’s government for being in 1995, before the last referendum on Quebec sovereignty.

“We’re not going to wait for the possible election of the Parti Québécois to get organized and wake up and say, ‘What are we going to do?'” said a Liberal source familiar with the file.

The source noted that in recent months, several social media influencers have come out in support of the “yes” option. “We could have a similar strategy, focusing on young people,” he said. “It’s clear that the world has changed a lot since 1995.”

In the short term, we need to “show that Canada works,” the source continued. “Promote the benefits of the federation to Quebecers.”

But one thing is certain, he said: “There is no question of replaying the sponsorship scandal.”

Asked about the referendum question on Tuesday, Carney’s new Quebec lieutenant, Joël Lightbound, said his priority right now is “to deliver good jobs and a developed economy for Quebecers.”

On Thursday, Lightbound added that the goal is “to highlight the role of the government of Canada in promoting culture [in Quebec].”

“We saw historic investments in the last budget, how we play a role in people’s lives,” he said. “Presenting this message from the government of Canada is the goal.”

Joly targets PQ leader

A few weeks ago, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly directly attacked Plamondon, saying the PQ leader “wants to give Quebec to Donald Trump, throw it into his arms.”

The comments came after Plamondon called for a “closer relationship” with the U.S., as he laid out part of his vision for a sovereign Quebec, saying the province has “a vested interest in speaking with our own voice and establishing our own diplomacy in Washington.”

Plamondon wants “to ensure that Quebec is much weaker in the face of an America that is gaining enormous power,” Joly suggested, adding: “I am very concerned that the PQ wants to create this rapprochement.”

Behind the scenes, three Liberals said they found Joly’s comments clumsy. 

“By targeting the PQ leader directly, the minister elevated Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to the federal stage. She gave him stature, even though he is still the leader of the third opposition party in Quebec City,” said one source.

The Bloc Québécois seized the opportunity, claiming that Carney’s government was still using the same arguments against sovereignty. 

“I think it’s normal for the federal Liberals to start thinking about a possible referendum,” Leader Yves-François Blanchet said in an interview with Radio-Canada. “But what we’re seeing as the first manifestation of their approach … are the old scare tactics that are not based on truth.”

Blanchet also said he hopes that federalists will not be tempted to “cheat or manipulate the rules” if the separatists come to power in Quebec. 

Last Tuesday, the Journal de Montréal reported that a few months before the 1995 referendum, then Prime Minister Jean Chrétien asked his immigration minister to speed up the processing of citizenship applications, to enable new arrivals to vote and thus favour the “no” camp. 

Chrétien has been summoned to appear before a parliamentary committee to discuss the revelations.

Conservatives are also preparing

It is not only the federal Liberals who are beginning to worry about the possibility of a referendum in Quebec.

One Conservative Party source said they believe that “this issue could become central to Canadian politics after 2026” and that it is “in our interest to start talking about it subtly.”

In a speech to the Quebec City Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Nov. 6, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he understood that many young Quebecers do not feel a strong sense of belonging to Canada.

“We have a federal government that has been saying for 10 years that Canada has no identity, that it is a post-national state. And it continues to denigrate our history.”

Poilievre said we must not only “be proud of our history as a country,” but also “recognize that Quebec nationalism is part of Canadian patriotism.” 

In the event of a referendum, Poilievre would focus on decentralization and respect for Quebec’s areas of jurisdiction, according to a source within the party, as other Conservatives have done before him.

But beyond the Conservative family, the fear among some federalists is that there will be less appetite among anglophones to please Quebec — especially with the West, which wants its share of the pie, said one source in Ottawa.

In 1995, a few days before that referendum, thousands of Canadians flocked to Montreal to express their love for Quebec and to encourage voters to remain part of the federation.

“If there is a referendum in the next few years, I’m afraid there will be a get-out, not a love-in, from the rest of Canada,” the source said.