Only 40 per cent of Canada’s air force inventory is considered serviceable and ready to fight, according to a new military-wide readiness document obtained by CBC News.

And the uncertainty about the availability and age of the various fleets of aircraft is expected to grow in light of the Liberal government’s pledge to look at alternatives to the F-35 fighters and the possibility that the number of U.S.-made warplanes on order could be reduced.

The document, dated Feb. 18, 2025, tracks the availability of military equipment and personnel. It projects that 60 per cent of the air force inventory is “unserviceable” and likely not fit for deployment should NATO call upon this country.

The notion of reducing the number of U.S.-built F-35s — as much as it may feel good politically and play well among an angry public — comes at an extremely vulnerable time for Canada’s air force.

Much of its combat capability is made up of aging CF-18 fighter jets, which governments of both political stripes have hesitated in replacing — mostly for political reasons.

The former Conservative government’s plan to buy F-35s ran into a storm of political, public and watchdog criticism — so much so that the current Liberal government rode to power in an election a decade ago on a promise not to buy the Lockheed Martin-manufactured jet.

An open competition and eight years later, the Liberals reversed themselves and ordered 88 fighters to replace the current CF-18s, some of which are closing in on 45 years of service.

Enter President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and the bruising trade war which he initiated.

The F-35 has long been a political football in Canada, and seems destined to be one again as Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to call a federal election and seek a mandate from a public that’s growing increasingly alarmed about the country’s state of defence preparedness.

“The defence minister raised the issue with me,” Carney said recently in explaining his decision to order a review.

The issue, says Carney, is whether the F-35 is the right warplane for Canada in this geopolitical climate when allies are questioning the reliability of the United States.

“We had a discussion about Canada’s options and the fact is that under the [F-35] contract, as you may know, there are — after a certain number of purchases — we have options on subsequent aircraft,” the prime minister said.

Canada has already paid for its first tranche of 16 F-35s, to be delivered in the next few years.

It planned to buy 88 in total from Lockheed Martin for $19 billion, but that could change.

Last week, Defence Minister Bill Blair floated the idea that the air force could have two types of fighters.

“The Prime Minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada,” Blair told host David Cochrane on CBC’s Power & Politics.

It was an obvious reference to the company that placed second in Canada’s fighter jet competition — Saab, the Swedish defence giant. It offered its Gripen-E fighter jet and proposed assembling it in Canada.

There are, however, many obstacles to the Liberal government’s proposal, starting with the age of the CF-18s. While their lifespan and electronics have been extended on a couple of occasions, the warplanes will become more unserviceable by 2032.

“I understand why this discussion regarding the F-35 is underway and what I would say is this is the wrong weapon system to reconsider,” said retired general Tom Lawson, the country’s former top military commander and a former consultant for Lockheed Martin.

“There’s a very real scenario where everything gets delayed to the point where there are no fighters flying in Canada for a period of time.”

Lawson also said operating two types of fighters is something the air force doesn’t want to do because of the enormous cost of setting up two training and supply systems, as well as building separate hangars and infrastructure.

New concerns over buying American

Dan Grazier, a senior fellow and program director at the Washington-based Stimson Center, said Canada has reasons to reconsider the F-35 beyond the current trade war.

“I certainly do understand the Canadian people’s reluctance to fully participate in this program,” he said.

“There are some valid concerns about the F-35 program,” said Grazier, who pointed to the ability of the U.S. to potentially influence the supply chain and software updates.

He said he believes Lockheed Martin has too much hold over proprietary information related to the aircraft to the detriment of not only allies, but the U.S. military as well.

“I think all the partner countries for the F-35 program are taking a bit of a risk by participating in the program, just with the way that the program is structured and the way that it’s supported specifically,” Grazier said.

But former F-35 test pilot and retired lieutenant-colonel Billie Flynn says the same could be said about all U.S. military software and weapons supply chains.

“Remember that every missile that we own and fire on the CF-18s and all our frigates, all our offensive weapons are American and necessarily the United States government has control over what’s loaded into the latest version,” Flynn said.

“In that sense, we’re always at the mercy or vulnerable to what the United States government would do. We don’t have war stocks to sustain a fight, and they would just shut the tap off against them or against anybody else. There is nothing unique about the vulnerability of the F-35.”