A recent Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) assessment obtained by The Canadian Press through access to information identified resource extraction projects, increasing ship traffic and the building of ports as some of the ways bad faith actors could use to gain ground in the Arctic. 

“There’s a lot of Russian military deployed in that region and theoretically, at least if they wanted to, they could land on any remote Canadian island and seize some territory,” says Stéphane Roussel, a political science professor at the École nationale d’administration publique.

But Roussel warns of a bigger threat closer to home. He says the new American administration might want to challenge Canadian claims on some areas of the Arctic, namely the Northwest Passage. 

The maritime route weaves through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, stretching from north of Baffin Island right up until the Beaufort Sea, next to the U.S. state of Alaska. It is the longest coast Canada claims as sovereign.

In 2019, during the 11th Arctic Council ministerial meeting in Finland, former U.S. secretary of state Mike Pompeo accused Canada of making illegitimate claims to the Northwest Passage as internal waters. 

“It’s possible that the Trump administration wants to revive these conflicts and openly contest Canadian claims on this region,” Roussel said.