Oil Falls as Israel and Iran Halt Hostilities That Risked Talks


(Bloomberg) — Oil declined after Israel and Iran agreed to end attacks against each other, while US President Donald Trump renewed his claims of momentum toward ending the conflict in the Middle East.

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Brent (BZ=F) crude slipped below $93 a barrel after closing slightly higher on Monday, and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) traded near $90. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country is holding fire against Iran for now, but will respond should Tehran attack again. Iranian media conveyed similar sentiment.

Trump told reporters in New York on Tuesday that “we’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal. We could have at least an idea one or two days from now.” In earlier comments during a virtual campaign rally, he said the US will declare “total victory” in the war over the next two weeks.

The flare-up in hostilities put wider negotiations to end the war in the Middle East at risk, prompting President Donald Trump to appeal for de-escalation. A fragile ceasefire remains in place, but the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington, choking off supplies of crude, fuels and natural gas to global customers.

Reflecting remaining risk in the region, an unladen oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman was disabled by US forces on Monday after it “violated” the blockade by attempting to sail to an Iranian port, US Central Command said on X. Israel’s military also intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” from Yemen.

Disruptions from the war have led to a sharp decline in China’s crude imports. Inbound shipments last month plunged to the lowest level in more than eight years as the conflict crimped supply and Beijing held off scrambling for replacement barrels, leaning on its inventories and refinery run cuts.

Even if a US-Iran peace deal is agreed, multiple hurdles will impede normal resumption of oil flows. Among them, mines in Hormuz must be removed, shut-in fields may take months to restart, and damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes needs to be repaired.

Oil remains “headline driven,” said Al Salazar, head of oil and gas research at industry consultant Enverus. “We believe prices still need to be firmly in triple digits to account fully for depleted stock levels.”



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